Match Info

NHL

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, DC) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	21:00	Disney+
Chile	21:00	Disney+
Denmark	01:00	Viaplay, V Sport Live 3
Finland	02:00	Viaplay, V Sport Live 3
Germany	01:00	NHL.tv
Iceland	00:00	Viaplay
Mexico	18:00	Sky Sport
Norway	01:00	Viaplay
Spain	01:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	01:00	Viaplay, V Sport Live 3
United Kingdom	00:00	DAZN
Uruguay	21:00	Disney+
Usa	19:00	ESPN+
Venezuela	20:00	Disney+
International	00:00	NHL.tv


	Washington Capitals		Tampa Bay Lightning

	1	X	2
	2.15	4.2	2.8	Watch
	2.29	4.19	2.65
	2.43	4.18	2.46	Watch
	2.28	4.25	2.68	Watch
	2.3	4.2	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.48)	4.2 ↓ (4.47)	2.65 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Washington Capitals
41.5%

Draw
22.6%

Tampa Bay Lightning
35.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.1%

21.7%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

21.9%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Washington Capitals has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Washington Capitals than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Washington will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tampa Bay will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Washington: 6.6% – 60%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Washington (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tampa Bay (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
48. Thompson L. (G)	31. Johansson J. (G)
74. Carlson J. (A)	43. Raddysh D.
42. Fehervary M.	90. Moser J.J.
72. Beauvillier A.	86. Kucherov N. (A)
17. Strome D.	71. Cirelli A.
8. Ovechkin A. (C)	38. Hagel B. (A)
Line 2
3. Roy M.	78. Lilleberg E.
6. Chychrun J.	51. D'Astous C.
43. Wilson T. (A)	20. Paul N.
34. Sourdif J.	21. Point B.
21. Protas A.	59. Guentzel J. (A)
Line 3
52. McIlrath D.	16. Santini S.
38. Sandin R.	67. Carlile D.
9. Leonard R.	22. Bjorkstrand O.
24. McMichael C.	37. Gourde Y.
22. Duhaime B.	28. Girgensons Z.
Line 4
53. Frank E.	93. Goncalves G.
29. Lapierre H.	17. James D.
15. Milano S.	42. Douglas C.
Substitutes
79. Lindgren C. (G)	88. Vasilevski A. (G)
Coaches
. Carbery S.	. Cooper J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 4)
01:06, 1 - 0, Sourdif J. (G), Wilson T. (A), Fehervary M. (A2)
02:39, Moser J.J. (2 min),
02:53, 1 - 1, Hagel B. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Cernak E. (A2)
03:25, Frank E. (2 min),
05:21, 1 - 2, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Raddysh D. (A2)
07:06, Kucherov N. (2 min),
11:36, 1 - 3, Hagel B. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Moser J.J. (A2)
18:19, 1 - 4, Kucherov N. (G), Hagel B. (A), D'Astous C. (A2)
18:19, Thompson L. ↓, Lindgren C. ↑,
2nd Period (1 - 0)
01:12, Hagel B. (2 min),
05:26, 2 - 4, Chychrun J. (G),
18:25, Wilson T. (5 min),
18:25, Douglas C. (2 min),
18:25, Douglas C. (5 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
00:58, Sandin R. (2 min),
05:24, 3 - 4, Frank E. (G), Milano S. (A), Chychrun J. (A2)
06:30, Cirelli A. (2 min),
07:17, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
08:25, Chychrun J. (2 min),
15:51, 3 - 5, Cirelli A. (G), Hagel B. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Washington won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Washington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Washington: Dowd N. (Upper-Body Injury) Dubois P. (Abdominal strain)

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Crozier M. (Injury) Hedman V. (Injury) McDonagh R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tampa Bay: Cernak E. (Lower-Body Injury) Holmberg P. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Washington won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 61:59. (average 3.1:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Washington won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:24. (average 3:2.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Washington Capitals
NHL
20.11.25	Montreal Canadiens - Washington Capitals	4:8 ✺
19.11.25	Washington Capitals - Edmonton Oilers	7:4 ✺
17.11.25	Washington Capitals - Los Angeles Kings	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Washington Capitals - New Jersey Devils	2:3 penalties ✺
13.11.25	Florida Panthers - Washington Capitals	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLL
- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
20.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Edmonton Oilers	2:1 OT ✺
18.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - New Jersey Devils	5:1 ✺
16.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Vancouver Canucks	2:6 ✺
15.11.25	Florida Panthers - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:3 ✺
12.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Rangers	3:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
08.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:2
14.10.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 OT
01.03.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:3
27.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	4:5
26.10.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:0
13.04.24	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:2
22.02.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:5

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