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Current Win Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning 47.9%
Draw 21.8%
Pittsburgh Penguins 30.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
51.3%
21.1%
27.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.5%
22.3%
29.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
Pittsburgh Penguins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
16.7%
50%
33.3%
Tampa Bay Lightning - Pittsburgh Penguins Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Pittsburgh will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3
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Lineups
Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)
74. Skinner S. (G)
43. Raddysh D.
65. Karlsson E.
90. Moser J.J.
28. Wotherspoon P.
86. Kucherov N. (A)
17. Rust B.
21. Point B.
87. Crosby S. (C)
59. Guentzel J.
59. Chinakhov Y.
Line 2
81. Cernak E.
58. Letang K. (A)
27. McDonagh R.
49. Girard S.
22. Bjorkstrand O.
71. Malkin E. (A)
71. Cirelli A.
81. Kindel B.
93. Goncalves G.
18. Novak T.
Line 3
78. Lilleberg E.
75. Clifton C.
51. D'Astous C.
5. Shea R.
29. Holmberg P.
16. Brazeau J.
37. Gourde Y.
67. Rakell R.
28. Girgensons Z.
39. Mantha A.
Line 4
41. Chaffee M.
55. Acciari N.
20. Paul N.
19. Dewar C.
10. Perry C.
25. Soderblom E.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)
37. Silovs A. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.
. Muse D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (1 - 2)
05:06, 1 - 0, Cirelli A. (G), Goncalves G. (A),
07:01, 1 - 1, Rakell R. (G), Girard S. (A), Letang K. (A2)
16:10, 1 - 2, Chinakhov Y. (G), Rust B. (A), Girard S. (A2)
17:52, Clifton C. (2 min),
18:24, Raddysh D. (2 min),
2nd Period (3 - 0)
00:11, 2 - 2, Cirelli A. (G),
14:08, 3 - 2, Point B. (G), Guentzel J. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
19:05, 4 - 2, Girgensons Z. (G), Gourde Y. (A), McDonagh R. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
01:04, Bjorkstrand O. (2 min),
01:04, Malkin E. (2 min),
01:04, Malkin E. (2 min),
07:35, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
10:15, Dewar C. (2 min),
10:37, Raddysh D. (2 min),
13:50, 5 - 2, Kucherov N. (G), D'Astous C. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
15:33, 6 - 2, Cirelli A. (G), Goncalves G. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
15:33, Rust B. (2 min),
18:10, D'Astous C. (2 min),
19:58, 6 - 3, Chinakhov Y. (G), Letang K. (A), Mantha A. (A2)
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 4.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.
Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Tampa Bay: Carlile D.
(Lower-Body Injury)
Crozier M.
(Muscle Injury)
Hagel B.
(Injury)
Hedman V.
(Personal Reasons)
James D.
(Leg Injury)
Sabourin S.
(Injury)
There will not play in Pittsburgh: Lizotte B.
(Upper-Body Injury)
Rust B.
(Lower-Body Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 65:66. (average 3.3:3.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:34. (average 3.3:3.4).
Outrights of NHL for now
Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.31% Pittsburgh Penguins: 1.2%
Last Results with these Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 51.33%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.
Pittsburgh Penguins - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 27.54%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.