Match Info

NHL

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
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World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Ottawa Senators

	1	X	2
	2.15	4.1	2.85	Watch
	2.08	4.3	2.95
	2.18	4.3	2.8
	2.07	4.4	2.93	Watch
	2.05	3.9	2.8
	2.17	4.33	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.05)	4.22 ↓ (4.42)	2.86 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
44.6%

Draw
22.4%

Ottawa Senators
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

21.9%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

20.5%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Ottawa Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	36.4%	18.2%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Ottawa will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	35. Ullmark L. (G)
43. Raddysh D.	2. Zub A.
90. Moser J.J.	43. Kleven T.
86. Kucherov N. (A)	28. Giroux C. (A)
71. Cirelli A.	18. Stutzle T. (A)
38. Hagel B. (A)	19. Batherson D.
Line 2
81. Cernak E.	10. Spence J.
27. McDonagh R. (A)	33. Matinpalo N.
93. Goncalves G.	71. Greig R.
21. Point B.	24. Cozens D.
59. Guentzel J.	7. Tkachuk B. (C)
Line 3
78. Lilleberg E.	58. Yakemchuk C.
51. D'Astous C.	56. Donovan J.
29. Holmberg P.	22. Amadio M.
37. Gourde Y.	12. Pinto S.
28. Girgensons Z.	21. Cousins N.
Line 4
22. Bjorkstrand O.	20. Zetterlund F.
20. Paul N.	89. Eller L.
10. Perry C.	37. Foegele W.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)	47. Reimer J. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Green T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
00:18, 0 - 1, Cozens D. (G), Kleven T. (A), Tkachuk B. (A2)
04:25, 0 - 2, Spence J. (G), Cousins N. (A), Zub A. (A2)
09:09, Batherson D. (2 min),
18:14, Foegele W. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
03:37, 1 - 2, Hagel B. (G), D'Astous C. (A), Lilleberg E. (A2)
05:14, 2 - 2, D'Astous C. (G), Gourde Y. (A), Girgensons Z. (A2)
07:40, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
08:09, Cirelli A. (2 min),
08:09, Yakemchuk C. (2 min),
08:09, Cozens D. (2 min),
17:52, Cernak E. (2 min),
19:23, Tkachuk B. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
08:51, 3 - 2, Lilleberg E. (G), Hagel B. (A), Goncalves G. (A2)
17:48, 4 - 2, Guentzel J. (G), Perry C. (A), Lilleberg E. (A2)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.

In recent matches, Tampa Bay has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ottawa is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Carlile D. (Lower-Body Injury) Crozier M. (Muscle Injury) Hedman V. (Personal Reasons) James D. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Ottawa: Chabot T. (Arm Injury) Gilbert D. (Upper-Body Injury) Jensen N. (Knee Injury) Sanderson J. (Upper-Body Injury) Thomson L. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 68:71. (average 3.4:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:25. (average 3.6:2.8).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22% Ottawa Senators: 2.53%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 47.29%, but this team recently wins 41% of matches with these odds.

Ottawa Senators - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 30.78%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
26.03.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Seattle Kraken	3:4 OT ✺
24.03.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Minnesota Wild	6:3 ✺
22.03.26	Calgary Flames - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:3 OT ✺
21.03.26	Edmonton Oilers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:5 ✺
19.03.26	Vancouver Canucks - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLWW
- Ottawa Senators
NHL
26.03.26	Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:4 penalties ✺
24.03.26	Detroit Red Wings - Ottawa Senators	2:3 ✺
23.03.26	New York Rangers - Ottawa Senators	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2 ✺
19.03.26	Ottawa Senators - New York Islanders	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
09.10.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators	4:5
03.04.25	Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:1
06.02.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators	5:1
04.02.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators	4:3
19.10.24	Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:4
11.04.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators	2:3 penalties
19.02.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators	2:4

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