Match Info

NHL

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay, V Sport Live 1
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Live 1
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Live 1
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Utah Mammoth

	1	X	2
	2	4.2	3.1	Watch
	2.05	4	2.95
	1.92	4.34	3.31
	1.95	4.37	3.24
	1.93	4.41	3.26	Watch
	2	4.33	3.25
	2.01	4.36	3.29
	1.9	4.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.91)	4.29 ↓ (4.4)	3.21 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
48.2%

Draw
22.2%

Utah Mammoth
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

22%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

22.7%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Utah Mammoth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utah Mammoth than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Utah Mammoth Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Utah will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tampa Bay Lightning will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	70. Vejmelka K. (G)
43. Raddysh D.	50. Durzi S.
90. Moser J.J.	98. Sergachyov M. (A)
86. Kucherov N. (A)	67. Crouse L. (A)
71. Cirelli A. (A)	8. Schmaltz N.
38. Hagel B.	9. Keller C. (C)
Line 2
81. Cernak E.	6. Marino J.
67. Carlile D.	88. Schmidt N.
93. Goncalves G.	19. But D.
17. James D.	27. Hayton B.
59. Guentzel J. (A)	77. Peterka J.
Line 3
24. Crozier M.	57. Desimone N.
23. Groshev M.	28. Cole I.
29. Holmberg P.	11. Guenther D.
37. Gourde Y.	22. McBain J.
28. Girgensons Z.	53. Carcone M.
Line 4
20. Paul N.	56. Yamamoto K.
62. Finley J.	82. Stenlund K.
22. Bjorkstrand O.	13. Tanev B.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)	41. Vanecek V. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Tourigny A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
17:16, Sergachyov M. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
04:45, Hagel B. (2 min),
06:59, Carlile D. (2 min),
06:59, Durzi S. (2 min),
14:05, Paul N. (5 min),
14:05, Cole I. (5 min),
14:05, Cole I. (2 min),
16:21, Marino J. (2 min),
17:38, 1 - 0, Raddysh D. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
13:16, Girgensons Z. (2 min),
17:29, Crouse L. (2 min),
19:14, 2 - 0, Hagel B. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Moser J.J. (A2)
19:44, Girgensons Z. (2 min),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

Tampa Bay has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Utah is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tampa Bay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of away games.

Recently, Utah has had a series of home games.

Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Elbow Injury) Lilleberg E. (Injury) Point B. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Utah: Cooley L. (Lower-Body Injury) Kerfoot A. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Tampa Bay: Cernak E. (Upper-Body Injury) Crozier M. (Illness) D'Astous C. (Injury) Finley J. (Illness) Goncalves G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Utah: Crouse L. (Illness)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 5.3:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Tampa Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:0.

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22% Utah Mammoth: 3.47%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50.78%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
24.01.26	Columbus Blue Jackets - Tampa Bay Lightning	8:5 ✺
23.01.26	Chicago Blackhawks - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:2 penalties ✺
20.01.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - San Jose Sharks	4:1 ✺
18.01.26	Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:4 ✺
16.01.26	St. Louis Blues - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWWL
- Utah Mammoth
NHL
24.01.26	Nashville Predators - Utah Mammoth	2:5 ✺
21.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Philadelphia Flyers	5:4 OT ✺
17.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Seattle Kraken	6:3 ✺
15.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Dallas Stars	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
02.11.25	Utah Mammoth - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:4
27.03.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Utah Mammoth	8:0
22.03.25	Utah Mammoth - Tampa Bay Lightning	6:4

Tampa Bay Lightning - Utah Mammoth: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide