Match Info

NHL

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Slovakia	Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	HBO Max, TNT, truTV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Detroit Red Wings

	1	X	2
	2.15	4.2	2.8	Watch
	2.28	4.14	2.69
	2.25	4.27	2.68	Watch
	2.25	4.33	2.63
	2.22	4.34	2.73
	2.3	4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.39)	4.21 ↑ (4.04)	2.7 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
42.3%

Draw
22.5%

Detroit Red Wings
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

23.4%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

25.1%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Detroit Red Wings has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

The ML Model estimate for Toronto Maple Leafs aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Detroit Red Wings than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Detroit will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Detroit: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Detroit (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	36. Gibson J. (G)
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	53. Seider M. (A)
44. Rielly M. (A)	77. Edvinsson S.
11. Domi M.	23. Raymond L. (A)
34. Matthews A. (C)	71. Larkin D. (C)
74. McMann B.	92. Kasper M.
Line 2
25. Carlo B.	44. Sandin-Pellikka A.
22. McCabe J.	8. Chiarot B.
23. Knies M.	88. Kane P.
91. Tavares J. (A)	18. Copp A.
63. Maccelli M.	93. DeBrincat A.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	25. Bernard-Docker J.
2. Benoit S.	20. Johansson A.
89. Robertson N.	21. Van Riemsdyk J.
55. Roy N.	37. Compher J.T.
53. Cowan E.	58. Finnie E.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	22. Appleton M.
24. Laughton S.	27. Rasmussen M.
18. Lorentz S.	85. Soderblom E.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)	39. Talbot C. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. McLellan T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
04:46, 1 - 0, Laughton S. (G), Jarnkrok C. (A), Lorentz S. (A2)
05:37, Cowan E. (2 min),
19:42, 1 - 1, Edvinsson S. (G), Raymond L. (A), Larkin D. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
04:28, Bernard-Docker J. (2 min),
09:31, Van Riemsdyk J. (2 min),
14:49, Jarnkrok C. (2 min),
16:41, Laughton S. (Penalty Shot),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Overtime (0 - 1)
03:08, 1 - 2, Larkin D. (G), Seider M. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 0.

In recent matches, Toronto has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Detroit is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Groin Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 59:63. (average 3:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:30. (average 2.9:3).

Outrights of NHL for now

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45% Detroit Red Wings: 0.4%

Last Results with these Odds

Detroit Red Wings - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 37.15%, but this team recently wins 28% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
19.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	3:6 ✺
17.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT ✺
13.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:1 ✺
12.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLLW
- Detroit Red Wings
NHL
18.01.26	Detroit Red Wings - Ottawa Senators	4:3 OT ✺
16.01.26	Detroit Red Wings - San Jose Sharks	4:2 ✺
13.01.26	Boston Bruins - Detroit Red Wings	3:0 ✺
12.01.26	Detroit Red Wings - Carolina Hurricanes	4:3 OT ✺
10.01.26	Montreal Canadiens - Detroit Red Wings	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
28.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:2 OT
13.10.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	2:3
11.10.25	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:3
04.10.25	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT
02.10.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	1:3
17.04.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	4:3 OT
27.12.24	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:5

Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide