Match Info

NHL

Date: 19 January 2026, Monday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Amazon Prime Video, NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Minnesota Wild

	1	X	2
	2.5	4	2.45	Watch
	2.47	4.09	2.47
	2.45	4.21	2.46	Watch
	2.38	4.33	2.5
	2.47	4.23	2.47
	2.4	4.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.05)	4.19 ↑ (4.14)	2.47 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
38.8%

Draw
22.7%

Minnesota Wild
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

22.8%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

23.9%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.

Minnesota Wild has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Minnesota Wild's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Minnesota Wild than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Minnesota Wild, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	36.4%	18.2%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Minnesota will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toronto Maple Leafs will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	32. Gustavsson F. (G)
25. Carlo B.	7. Faber B.
44. Rielly M. (A)	43. Hughes Q.
11. Domi M.	36. Zuccarello M.
34. Matthews A. (C)	38. Hartman R.
74. McMann B.	97. Kaprizov K. (A)
Line 2
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	46. Spurgeon J. (C)
22. McCabe J.	5. Middleton J.
23. Knies M.	91. Tarasenko V.
91. Tavares J. (A)	22. Yurov D.
63. Maccelli M.	13. Trenin Y.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	55. Jiricek D.
2. Benoit S.	48. Hunt D.
89. Robertson N.	18. Hinostroza V.
55. Roy N.	37. Haight H.
53. Cowan E.	17. Foligno M. (A)
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	19. Pitlick T.
24. Laughton S.	78. Sturm N.
18. Lorentz S.	39. Jones B.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)	30. Wallstedt J. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Hynes J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
03:58, Benoit S. (2 min),
04:45, 0 - 1, Tarasenko V. (G), Hartman R. (A), Kaprizov K. (A2)
10:29, 0 - 2, Hartman R. (G), Zuccarello M. (A), Kaprizov K. (A2)
18:06, Spurgeon J. (2 min),
18:24, 1 - 2, Tavares J. (G), Knies M. (A), Matthews A. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 3)
04:36, Carlo B. (2 min),
06:53, 1 - 3, Foligno M. (G), Faber B. (A), Hughes Q. (A2)
08:24, 1 - 4, Tarasenko V. (G), Hughes Q. (A),
10:18, Hughes Q. (2 min),
17:23, Cowan E. (2 min),
19:14, 1 - 5, Foligno M. (G), Faber B. (A), Yurov D. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
00:01, Woll J. ↓, Hildeby D. ↑,
06:27, 2 - 5, Robertson N. (G), Roy N. (A), Cowan E. (A2)
08:37, Tarasenko V. (2 min),
15:02, 3 - 5, Matthews A. (G), Domi M. (A),
17:22, 3 - 6, Foligno M. (G), Tarasenko V. (A), Sturm N. (A2)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Minnesota may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Toronto: Benoit S. (Upper-Body Injury) Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Lower-Body Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Minnesota: Bogosian Z. (Upper-Body Injury) Boldy M. (Injury) Brodin J. (Lower-Body Injury) Eriksson J. (Lower-Body Injury) Johansson M. (Lower-Body Injury)

We predict that Toronto will win today's game, with odds of 2.31.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 52:49. (average 2.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 2.8:2.4).

Outrights of NHL for now

Minnesota Wild: 5.97% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Minnesota Wild - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31.01%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
17.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT ✺
13.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:1 ✺
12.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
10.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vancouver Canucks	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLLWW
- Minnesota Wild
NHL
17.01.26	Buffalo Sabres - Minnesota Wild	4:5 OT ✺
15.01.26	Minnesota Wild - Winnipeg Jets	2:6 ✺
12.01.26	Minnesota Wild - New Jersey Devils	2:5 ✺
10.01.26	Minnesota Wild - New York Islanders	3:4 OT ✺
08.01.26	Seattle Kraken - Minnesota Wild	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
29.01.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	1:3
03.11.24	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:1 OT
19.11.23	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT
14.10.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	7:4
24.02.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	2:1 OT
25.11.22	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4
24.02.22	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	3:1

Upcoming Matches