Match Info

NHL

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Buffalo Sabres

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.25	2.6	Watch
	2.35	4.19	2.57
	2.31	4.3	2.59
	2.31	4.33	2.57	Watch
	2.38	4.33	2.5
	2.36	4.31	2.56
	2.35	4.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.25)	4.28 ↑ (4.14)	2.56 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
40.7%

Draw
22.2%

Buffalo Sabres
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

22.8%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

24.2%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Buffalo Sabres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buffalo Sabres than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Buffalo Sabres Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Buffalo will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Buffalo: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Buffalo Sabres will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	1. Luukkonen U. (G)
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	26. Dahlin R. (C)
22. McCabe J.	23. Samuelsson M.
11. Domi M.	89. Tuch A. (A)
34. Matthews A. (C)	72. Thompson T. (A)
74. McMann B.	6. Benson Z.
Line 2
25. Carlo B.	25. Power O.
44. Rielly M. (A)	4. Byram B.
23. Knies M.	22. Quinn J.
91. Tavares J. (A)	71. McLeod R.
63. Maccelli M.	17. Zucker J.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	8. Kesselring M.
2. Benoit S.	73. Metsa Z.
89. Robertson N.	94. Helenius K.
55. Roy N.	86. Ostlund N.
53. Cowan E.	91. Doan J.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	29. Malenstyn B.
24. Laughton S.	19. Krebs P.
18. Lorentz S.	12. Greenway J.
Substitutes
41. Stolarz A. (G)	34. Lyon A. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Ruff L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 3)
07:44, 1 - 0, Knies M. (G), Tavares J. (A), Maccelli M. (A2)
09:29, 1 - 1, Dahlin R. (G), McLeod R. (A), Samuelsson M. (A2)
10:49, 2 - 1, Matthews A. (G), Domi M. (A), Ekman-Larsson O. (A2)
12:14, Luukkonen U. ↓, Ellis C. ↑,
12:27, Lorentz S. (2 min),
13:16, 2 - 2, Doan J. (G), Dahlin R. (A),
18:05, 2 - 3, Thompson T. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
11:17, 3 - 3, McMann B. (G), Matthews A. (A), Domi M. (A2)
18:17, 3 - 4, Dahlin R. (G), Samuelsson M. (A), Krebs P. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 3)
00:15, 3 - 5, Tuch A. (G), Thompson T. (A), Samuelsson M. (A2)
06:53, Carlo B. (2 min),
11:33, 3 - 6, Quinn J. (G), Dahlin R. (A),
14:59, 4 - 6, Domi M. (G), Matthews A. (A), McMann B. (A2)
19:17, 4 - 7, Dahlin R. (G),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.

Recent form of Toronto has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Buffalo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

Recently, Buffalo has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Groin Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Buffalo: Bryson J. (Upper-Body Injury) Danforth J. (Lower-Body Injury) Dunne J. (Injury) Kulich J. (Health problems) Timmins C. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Buffalo: Norris J. (Ribs Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 72:69. (average 3.6:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:35. (average 3.5:3.2).

Outrights of NHL for now

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45% Buffalo Sabres: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.02%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Buffalo Sabres - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 35.15%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
25.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Colorado Avalanche	1:4 ✺
23.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:6 ✺
21.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	1:2 OT ✺
19.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	3:6 ✺
17.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW
- Buffalo Sabres
NHL
24.01.26	New York Islanders - Buffalo Sabres	0:5 ✺
22.01.26	Montreal Canadiens - Buffalo Sabres	2:4 ✺
20.01.26	Nashville Predators - Buffalo Sabres	3:5 ✺
19.01.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Buffalo Sabres	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Buffalo Sabres - Minnesota Wild	4:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
25.10.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Buffalo Sabres	4:3 OT
24.10.25	Buffalo Sabres - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:3
15.04.25	Buffalo Sabres - Toronto Maple Leafs	0:4
20.12.24	Buffalo Sabres - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:6
15.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Buffalo Sabres	5:3
30.03.24	Buffalo Sabres - Toronto Maple Leafs	0:3
06.03.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Buffalo Sabres	2:1 OT

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