Match Info

NHL

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Disney+, Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Slovakia	Dajto, Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Vegas Golden Knights

	1	X	2
	2.7	4	2.25	Watch
	2.59	4.14	2.35
	2.6	4.25	2.31
	2.62	4.22	2.31	Watch
	2.63	4	2.38
	2.63	4.24	2.33
	2.6	4	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.59)	4.12 ↑ (4.08)	2.33 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
36.2%

Draw
23%

Vegas Golden Knights
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

23.2%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

23.4%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Vegas Golden Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vegas Golden Knights than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	45.5%	36.4%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Vegas will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 3 - 50%). Vegas (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 3rd Period - Toronto (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 6, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Vegas (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Stolarz A. (G)	33. Hill A. (G)
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	27. Theodore S.
22. McCabe J.	5. Lauzon J.
11. Domi M.	61. Stone M. (C)
34. Matthews A. (C)	9. Eichel J. (A)
74. McMann B.	49. Barbashev I.
Line 2
25. Carlo B.	6. Korczak K.
44. Rielly M. (A)	15. Hanifin N.
23. Knies M.	16. Dorofeyev P.
91. Tavares J. (A)	93. Marner M.
63. Maccelli M.	19. Smith R.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	52. Coghlan D.
2. Benoit S.	17. Hutton B.
89. Robertson N.	55. Kolesar K.
55. Roy N.	48. Hertl T. (A)
53. Cowan E.	42. Bowman B.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	26. Holtz A.
24. Laughton S.	28. Laczynski T.
18. Lorentz S.	23. Reinhardt C.
Substitutes
60. Woll J. (G)	40. Schmid A. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Cassidy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
01:06, 0 - 1, Eichel J. (G), Stone M. (A), Barbashev I. (A2)
04:31, 0 - 2, Kolesar K. (G), Rondbjerg J. (A), Smith R. (A2)
07:01, Laughton S. (2 min),
2nd Period (3 - 2)
00:13, 1 - 2, Tavares J. (G), Knies M. (A), Maccelli M. (A2)
03:32, 1 - 3, Dorofeyev P. (G),
05:16, 1 - 4, Bowman B. (G), Laczynski T. (A), Holtz A. (A2)
10:04, 2 - 4, Laughton S. (G), Knies M. (A),
18:19, 3 - 4, McMann B. (G), Domi M. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
12:37, Hertl T. (2 min),
15:11, 3 - 5, Stone M. (G), Barbashev I. (A),
18:59, 3 - 6, Stone M. (G), Eichel J. (A), Andersson R. (A2)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 2.

Toronto has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vegas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vegas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Groin Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Vegas: Hart C. (Lower-Body Injury) Howden B. (Lower-Body Injury) Karlsson W. (Lower-Body Injury) McNabb B. (Upper-Body Injury) Pietrangelo A. (Hip Injury) Saad B. (Injury) Sissons C. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Ekman-Larsson O. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 51:48. (average 3.4:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:15. (average 3:2.1).

Outrights of NHL for now

Vegas Golden Knights: 7.11% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Vegas Golden Knights - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 40.37%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
21.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	1:2 OT ✺
19.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	3:6 ✺
17.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT ✺
13.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Vegas Golden Knights
NHL
22.01.26	Boston Bruins - Vegas Golden Knights	4:3 ✺
19.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Philadelphia Flyers	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Nashville Predators	7:2 ✺
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT ✺
14.01.26	Los Angeles Kings - Vegas Golden Knights	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT
05.03.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2
20.11.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:0
27.02.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	2:6
22.02.24	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:7
08.11.22	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:4 OT
24.10.22	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:1

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