Match Info

Liiga

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Vaasa Arena (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Vaasan Sport		Ilves

	1	X	2
	3.50	4.50	1.76
	3.60	4.40	1.75
	4.10	4.00	1.75	Watch
	3.82	3.97	1.79
	3.88	4.31	1.74
	3.75	3.90	1.77
	3.77	4.30	1.77	Watch
	3.65	4.10	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (3.61)	4.19 ↓ (4.38)	1.76 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vaasan Sport
24.8%

Draw
22.3%

Ilves
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

21.5%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

21.7%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vaasan Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaasan Sport than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Vaasan Sport - Ilves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ilves (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Ilves (1.48) (votes: 94%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Ilves will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
53. Harkonen M. (G)	40. Armalis M. (G)
8. Viljanen V.	27. Strand A.
55. Koivisto M. (C)	57. Parikka J.
22. Walther I.	29. Looke J.
28. Sundstrom J. (A)	9. Jasek L.
17. Diaco G.	92. Henman L. (A)
Line 2
7. Ervasti K.	43. Latvala O.
62. Akerstrom S.	6. Sund T.
86. Granath P.	67. Haatanen A.
89. Palve O.	44. Jarvinen J. (C)
71. Nieminen V.	46. Torok M.
Line 3
16. Johnsson T.	77. Loof L.
26. Burger E.	28. Nyberg J.
3. Bertrand C.	38. Teuho-Markkola T.
9. Grainger L.	19. Lantta J.
44. Harrison B.	71. Korhonen B.
Line 4
6. Kangas K.	3. Utunen T.
63. Heikkinen L. (A)	26. Niskanen A.
12. Straka A.	25. Hynninen T.
10. Pietila B.	11. Borg E. (A)
	22. Engberg T.
Substitutes
31. Ortio J. (G)	65. Rifalk C. (G)
18. Timonen S.
Coaches
. Mikkola L.	. Niemela T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
06:15, 1 - 0, Harrison B. (G),
13:00, 2 - 0, Harrison B. (G), Bertrand C. (A), Harkonen M. (A2)
15:32, 2 - 1, Borg E. (G), Heikkinen I. (A), Strand A. (A2)
19:04, Engberg T. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
12:07, Strand A. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
08:32, Ervasti K. (2 min),

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 14th and 1st in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vaasa won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Vaasa (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ilves is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Ilves may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ilves has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bookmakers give the edge to Ilves for this game.

Our forecast points to a victory for Ilves in today's match, at odds of 1.75.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Vaasa has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 39:71 (averaging 2:3.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vaasa against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with 20:37 goals (averaging 2:3.7 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Vaasan Sport: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26
15	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20:31	13

Last Results with these Odds

Vaasan Sport - the odds 3.61 are the expected chance of winning is 26.15%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Ilves - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.3%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vaasan Sport
Finnish SM-liiga
03.10.26	Vaasan Sport - HIFK	2:3 OT ✺
26.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 AET ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLLLW
- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.10.26	Ilves - Kiekko-Espoo	6:4 ✺
29.09.26	Ilves - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	Ilves - TPS	3:2 ✺
25.09.26	Ilves - KooKoo	6:0 ✺
18.09.26	KalPa - Ilves	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
27.01.26	Ilves - Vaasan Sport	5:2
07.01.26	Ilves - Vaasan Sport	3:2 OT
27.12.25	Vaasan Sport - Ilves	1:4
01.10.25	Vaasan Sport - Ilves	0:2
11.01.25	Ilves - Vaasan Sport	2:1
10.01.25	Vaasan Sport - Ilves	4:3 OT
31.10.24	Vaasan Sport - Ilves	4:1

Vaasan Sport - Ilves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide