Match Info

NRL - Round 21

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 1


	Canberra Raiders		Wests Tigers

	1	X	2
	1.18	26	5
	1.18	22	5.3
	1.18	27.67	5.27	Watch
	1.17		4.50	Watch
	1.19	35	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.31)	22.13 ↓ (27.04)	5.01 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canberra Raiders
77.6%

Draw
4.1%

Wests Tigers
18.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.1%

3.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

3.6%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canberra Raiders's performance.

Wests Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wests Tigers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canberra Raiders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wests Tigers than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wests Tigers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weekes K.	1. Bula J.
2. Stuart J.	2. Tupou J.
3. Sasagi S.	3. Turuva S.
4. Timoko M.	4. Herbert P.
5. Savage X.	5. Tavana F.
6. Strange E.	6. Luai J. (C)
7. Sanders E.	7. Andrews J.
8. Horsburgh C.	8. May T.
9. Pattie O.	9. Koroisau A.
10. Tapine J. (C)	10. Pole F.
11. Hosking Z.	11. Fainu S.
13. Smithies M.	12. Roberts E.
15. Mariota A.	13. Twal A.
Substitutes
14. Brailey J.	14. Haywood J.
16. Papalii J.	15. Fainu S.
17. Laurie D.	16. Seyfarth A.
18. Nicholson M.	17. Afoa B.
19. Kris S.	18. To'a S.
21. Patuki-Case V.	23. Mason H.
Coaches
. Stuart R.	. Marshall B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 10)
7', Stuart J. (Try),
9', Sanders E. (Missed Conversion),
12', Roberts E. (Try),
13', Koroisau A. (Conversion Goal),
16', Sanders E. (Try),
17', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
21', Strange E. (Try),
23', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
25', Weekes K. (Try),
26', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
34', Savage X. (Try),
35', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
37', Tavana F. (Try),
39', Koroisau A. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (28 - 0)
52', Laurie D. (Try),
53', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
61', Laurie D. (Try),
63', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
68', Laurie D. (Try),
69', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
70', Stuart J. (Try),
72', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
77', Timoko M. (Try),
78', Sanders E. (Missed Conversion),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 3.

Canberra has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wests has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Wests may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Canberra is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 578:326. (average 28.9:16.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 272:118. (average 30.2:13.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
18.07.26	Canberra Raiders - South Sydney Rabbitohs	34:24 ✺
11.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Canberra Raiders	16:40 ✺
28.06.26	Canberra Raiders - St. George Illawarra Dragons	24:16 ✺
21.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	42:20 ✺
13.06.26	Parramatta Eels - Canberra Raiders	15:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLL
- Wests Tigers
Australian NRL
18.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Wests Tigers	32:0 ✺
10.07.26	Wests Tigers - New Zealand Warriors	6:32 ✺
04.07.26	St. George Illawarra Dragons - Wests Tigers	24:10 ✺
28.06.26	Newcastle Knights - Wests Tigers	12:6 ✺
20.06.26	Wests Tigers - Dolphins	22:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
23.04.26	Wests Tigers - Canberra Raiders	33:14
30.08.25	Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers	24:10
20.06.25	Wests Tigers - Canberra Raiders	12:16
23.06.24	Wests Tigers - Canberra Raiders	48:24
16.03.24	Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers	32:12
06.08.23	Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers	22:18
02.06.23	Wests Tigers - Canberra Raiders	19:20

Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide