Match Info

NRL - Round 9

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)

Referee: Klein A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	Dolphins		Melbourne Storm

	1	X	2
	1.6	26	2.35
	1.7	18	2.4
	1.64	20.32	2.39	Watch
	1.67	23	2.3
	1.64	18	2.48
	2.12	24	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.19)	21.55 ↓ (23.67)	2.28 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dolphins
54.4%

Draw
4.4%

Melbourne Storm
41.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.4%

3.9%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

3.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dolphins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dolphins's performance.

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne Storm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dolphins than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dolphins that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne Storm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Dolphins - Melbourne Storm Predictions

Users Predictions: Dolphins will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tabuai-Fidow H.	1. Faalogo S.
2. Isaako J.	2. Warbrick W.
4. Farnworth H.	3. Howarth J.
5. Cobbo S.	4. Meaney N.
6. Schneider B.	5. Peel H.
7. Katoa I. (C)	6. Munster C.
9. Plath M.	7. Wishart T.
10. Molo F.	8. Utoikamanu S.
11. Lemuelu C.	9. Grant H. (C)
12. Finefeuiaki K.	10. King J.
13. Knowles M.	11. Blore S.
15. Flegler T.	12. Lisati A.
22. Bostock J.	17. Loiero T.
Substitutes
8. Gilbert T.	14. Toelau T.
14. Stone R.	15. Chan J.
16. Kaufusi F.	16. Moale D.
17. Keeley O.	18. Clarke C.
19. Naufahu T.	19. Waitere M.
21. Donoghoe K.	20. Pahulu J.
Coaches
. Woolf K.	. Bellamy C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 10)
12', Wishart T. (Try),
13', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
27', Faalogo S. (Try),
28', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
39', Cobbo S. (Try),
40', Isaako J. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (24 - 0)
59', Isaako J. (Try),
60', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
65', Bostock J. (Try),
66', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
72', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
74', Bostock J. (Try),
75', Isaako J. (Missed Conversion),
79', Finefeuiaki K. (Try),
79', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 16).

Dolphins is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Melbourne is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Dolphins could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Dolphins won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 88:124. (average 22:31).

Including home matches between the teams, Dolphins won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 82:76. (average 27.3:25.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dolphins NRL
Australian NRL
25.04.26	New Zealand Warriors - Dolphins	20:18 ✺
17.04.26	Dolphins - Penrith Panthers	22:23 OT ✺
02.04.26	Dolphins - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	18:52 ✺
27.03.26	Brisbane Broncos - Dolphins	26:12 ✺
21.03.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Dolphins	10:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLLW
- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
25.04.26	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	6:48 ✺
17.04.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	26:22 ✺
11.04.26	Melbourne Storm - New Zealand Warriors	14:38 ✺
03.04.26	Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm	50:10 ✺
28.03.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Melbourne Storm	28:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
18.04.25	Dolphins - Melbourne Storm	42:22
24.08.24	Melbourne Storm - Dolphins	48:6
21.06.24	Dolphins - Melbourne Storm	24:30
20.05.23	Dolphins - Melbourne Storm	16:24

Dolphins - Melbourne Storm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide