Match Info

NRL - Round 10

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Gee A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	Melbourne Storm		Wests Tigers

	1	X	2
	1.3	26	3.6
	1.4	20	3.4
	1.4	22.78	3.18	Watch
	1.3	26	3.5
	1.37	21	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.64)	23.16 ↓ (24.5)	3.4 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Storm
68.6%

Draw
4%

Wests Tigers
27.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.7%

3.8%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

4.1%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Storm's performance.

Wests Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wests Tigers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Storm that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wests Tigers than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wests Tigers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faalogo S.	1. Mason H.
2. Warbrick W.	2. Turuva S.
3. Howarth J.	3. Herbert P.
4. Meaney N.	4. May T.
5. Peel H.	5. Laulili'i L.
6. Munster C.	6. Luai J. (C)
7. Hughes J.	7. Madden J.
8. Utoikamanu S.	9. Hope T.
9. Grant H.	10. Pole F.
10. King J.	11. Fainu S.
11. Blore S.	12. Pearce-Paul K.
12. Lisati A.	13. Twal A.
13. Loiero T.	15. Afoa B.
Substitutes
14. Toelau T.	14. Fainu L.
15. Chan J.	16. Seyfarth A.
16. Moale D.	17. Hunt R.
17. Clarke C.	18. Geyer M.
18. Huen S.	19. Skelton J.
20. Hetherington J.	20. Murray C.
Coaches
. Bellamy C.	. Marshall B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 4)
02:47, Faalogo S. (Try),
04:20, Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
05:53, Warbrick W. (Try),
07:19, Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
08:32, Munster C. (Try),
09:59, Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
12:22, Hughes J. (Try),
13:52, Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
25:29, May T. (Try),
27:06, Madden J. (Missed Conversion),
27:14, Faalogo S. ↓, Chan J. ↑,
29:04, Pole F. ↓, Hunt R. ↑,
30:00, Utoikamanu S. ↓, Moale D. ↑,
31:11, Hope T. ↓, Fainu L. ↑,
33:48, Grant H. (Try),
35:03, Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 12)
53:38, Warbrick W. (Try),
55:06, Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
64:03, Laulili'i L. (Try),
65:30, Madden J. (Conversion Goal),
66:50, May T. (Try),
68:04, Madden J. (Conversion Goal),
70:46, Munster C. (Try),
72:09, Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
77:20, Lisati A. (Try),
77:56, Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 5.

Melbourne is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Wests has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Melbourne could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 524:281. (average 26.2:14.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 291:114. (average 32.3:12.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
01.05.26	Dolphins - Melbourne Storm	28:10 ✺
25.04.26	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	6:48 ✺
17.04.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	26:22 ✺
11.04.26	Melbourne Storm - New Zealand Warriors	14:38 ✺
03.04.26	Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm	50:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Wests Tigers
Australian NRL
03.05.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Wests Tigers	52:10 ✺
23.04.26	Wests Tigers - Canberra Raiders	33:14 ✺
18.04.26	Wests Tigers - Brisbane Broncos	20:21 ✺
12.04.26	Wests Tigers - Newcastle Knights	42:22 ✺
06.04.26	Parramatta Eels - Wests Tigers	20:22 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
11.05.25	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	64:0
06.07.24	Wests Tigers - Melbourne Storm	28:40
17.06.23	Wests Tigers - Melbourne Storm	6:28
24.03.23	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	24:12
12.03.22	Wests Tigers - Melbourne Storm	16:26
19.06.21	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	66:16
19.09.20	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	50:22

Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide