Match Info
NRL - Round 11Date: 17 May 2026, SundayLocation: Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)Where to Watch on TV: | |
|---|
 Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Action |
|
 |
|
 |
|
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New Zealand Warriors |
|
Brisbane Broncos |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.75 |
26 |
2.1 |
|
 |
1.78 |
15 |
2.3 |
|
 |
1.71 |
20.11 |
2.27 |
 Watch |
 |
1.7 |
21 |
2.2 |
|
 |
1.69 |
15 |
2.31 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.73 ↑
(1.71) |
19.42 ↓
(20.11) |
2.24 ↓
(2.27) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 50.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
New Zealand Warriors
53.7% | Draw
4.8% | Brisbane Broncos
41.5% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:New Zealand Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Brisbane Broncos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (-0.1%)New Zealand Warriors - Brisbane Broncos Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:23 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1.  Tuaupiki T.
| 1. Walsh R.
|
2.  Watene-Zelezniak D.
| 2. Karapani J.
|
3. Leiataua A.
| 3. Arthars J.
|
4. Pompey A.
| 4. Shibasaki G.
|
5. Khan-Pereira A.
| 5. Coates P.
|
6.  Harris-Tavita C.
| 6. Mam E.
|
7. Boyd T.
| 7. Reynolds A. (C)
|
8. Fisher-Harris J. (C)
| 8. Riki P.
|
9. Egan W.
| 9. Paix C.
|
10. Barnett M.
| 10. Willison X.
|
11.  Halasima L.
| 11. Hunt J.
|
12. Capewell K.
| 12. Riki J.
|
13. Clark E.
| 13. Carrigan P.
|
| Substitutes |
|---|
14. Healey S.
| 14. Hunt B.
|
15. Ford J.
| 15. Talty B.
|
16. Vaimauga D.
| 16. Semu V.
|
17. Laban J.
| 17. Tawha A.
|
18. Stowers-Smith T.
| 18. Perham H.
|
20. Martin T.
| 20. Duffy T.
|
| Coaches |
|---|
. Webster A.
| . Maguire M.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (22 - 0)
- 13', Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
- 14', Tuaupiki T. (Missed Conversion),
- 22', Clark E. (Try),
- 24', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
- 28', Egan W. (Try),
- 29', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
- 34', Capewell K. (Try),
- 36', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (20 - 12)
- 42', Reynolds A. (Try),
- 43', Reynolds A. (Conversion Goal),
- 45', Leiataua A. (Try),
- 45', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
- 48', Martin T. (Try),
- 49', Tuaupiki T. (Conversion Goal),
- 53', Reynolds A. (Try),
- 53', Reynolds A. (Conversion Goal),
- 62', Harris-Tavita C. (Penalty Goal),
- 68', Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
- 69', Harris-Tavita C. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 11).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 2.New Zealand is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).Brisbane has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).New Zealand may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 394:372. (average 19.7:18.6).Including home matches between the teams, New Zealand won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 272:203. (average 20.9:15.6).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 28.06.25 | Brisbane Broncos - New Zealand Warriors | 26:12 | | 19.04.25 | New Zealand Warriors - Brisbane Broncos | 20:18 OT | | 29.06.24 | New Zealand Warriors - Brisbane Broncos | 32:16 | | 23.09.23 | Brisbane Broncos - New Zealand Warriors | 42:12 | | 27.05.23 | New Zealand Warriors - Brisbane Broncos | 22:26 | | 02.04.22 | New Zealand Warriors - Brisbane Broncos | 20:6 | | 22.08.21 | Brisbane Broncos - New Zealand Warriors | 24:22 |
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