Match Info

NRL - Round 22

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Glen Willow Oval (Mudgee)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+


	Penrith Panthers		Canberra Raiders

	1	X	2
	1.32	26	3.5
	1.32	18	3.6
	1.31	24.75	3.7	Watch
	1.34	21	3.51
	1.26	25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 (1.31)	22.95 ↓ (24.75)	3.66 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penrith Panthers
70.7%

Draw
4%

Canberra Raiders
25.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.1%

3.8%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

3.3%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penrith Panthers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penrith Panthers than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penrith Panthers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Edgar J.	1. Weekes K.
2. Jenkins T.	2. Stuart J.
3. Alamoti P.	4. Timoko M.
4. McLean C.	5. Savage X.
5. To'o B.	6. Strange E.
6. Cogger J.	7. Sanders E.
7. Cleary N. (C)	8. Horsburgh C.
8. Leota M.	9. Pattie O.
9. Lussick F.	10. Tapine J. (C)
10. Smith L.	11. Hosking Z.
11. Papali'i I.	12. Mariota A.
12. Martin L.	13. Smithies M.
13. Yeo I.	18. Kris S.
Substitutes
14. Scott B.	14. Starling T.
15. Sorensen S.	15. Nicholson M.
16. Henry L.	16. Papalii J.
17. Phillips B.	17. Laurie D.
18. Tago I.	19. Roddy J.
19. Cole J.	21. Tamale S.
Coaches
. Cleary I.	. Stuart R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (30 - 6)
4', Timoko M. (Try),
5', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
9', Martin L. (Try),
10', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
20', Martin L. (Try),
22', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
31', Jenkins T. (Try),
33', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
36', Jenkins T. (Try),
38', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
40', Edgar J. (Try),
40+1', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 12)
57', Henry L. (Try),
59', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
70', Nicholson M. (Try),
72', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
74', Sanders E. (Try),
76', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
77', Papali'i I. (Try),
78', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penrith won 2.

Recent performances by Penrith have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Canberra is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Penrith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Penrith is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Penrith won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 491:421. (average 24.6:21.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Penrith won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 251:203. (average 25.1:20.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Penrith Panthers
Australian NRL
23.07.26	Parramatta Eels - Penrith Panthers	18:24 ✺
16.07.26	Penrith Panthers - Brisbane Broncos	12:14 ✺
03.07.26	Penrith Panthers - South Sydney Rabbitohs	36:14 ✺
27.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Penrith Panthers	26:12 ✺
20.06.26	Gold Coast Titans - Penrith Panthers	19:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLL
- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
25.07.26	Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers	56:10 ✺
18.07.26	Canberra Raiders - South Sydney Rabbitohs	34:24 ✺
11.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Canberra Raiders	16:40 ✺
28.06.26	Canberra Raiders - St. George Illawarra Dragons	24:16 ✺
21.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	42:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
10.05.26	Canberra Raiders - Penrith Panthers	18:30
22.08.25	Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders	16:20 OT
08.02.25	Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders	16:22
24.08.24	Canberra Raiders - Penrith Panthers	22:18
31.03.23	Canberra Raiders - Penrith Panthers	12:53
06.08.22	Canberra Raiders - Penrith Panthers	6:26
24.04.22	Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders	36:6

Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide