Match Info

NRL - Round 25

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, NRL
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2


	Newcastle Knights		Brisbane Broncos

	1	X	2
	3.9	26	1.27
	4	21	1.25
	4	30	1.28	Watch
	9.59	27.55	1.07	Watch
	3.6	29	1.25
	4.04	21	1.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.86 ↑ (3.35)	25.76 ↑ (25.5)	1.23 ↓ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Knights
19.5%

Draw
3.7%

Brisbane Broncos
76.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.9%

3.7%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

63.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle Knights's form might have worsened.

Brisbane Broncos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brisbane Broncos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle Knights, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brisbane Broncos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brisbane (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Brisbane Broncos will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Young D.	1. Walsh R.
3. Gagai D.	2. Karapani J.
4. Best B.	3. Staggs K.
6. Arthur J.	4. Shibasaki G.
7. Cogger J.	5. Mariner D.
8. Saifiti J.	6. Walters B.
9. Crossland P.	7. Hunt B.
10. Thompson L.	8. Jensen C.
11. McEwen J.	9. Paix C.
12. Pearce-Paul K.	10. Haas P.
13. Frizell T.	11. Hunt J.
19. Schiller J.	12. Riki J.
21. Hunt F.	13. Carrigan P.
Substitutes
14. Brailey J.	14. Smoothy T.
15. Croker M.	15. Hetherington K.
16. Cant T.	16. Talty B.
17. Salesa-Leaumoana E.	17. Arthars J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 14)
3', Staggs K. (Try),
5', Walsh R. (Missed Conversion),
8', Karapani J. (Try),
10', Walsh R. (Missed Conversion),
27', Hetherington K. (Try),
29', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),
33', Thompson L. (Try),
34', Cogger J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (6 - 32)
45', Mariner D. (Try),
46', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),
55', Best B. (Try),
56', Cogger J. (Conversion Goal),
59', Haas P. (Try),
60', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),
66', Walsh R. (Try),
68', Smoothy T. (Conversion Goal),
69', Shibasaki G. (Try),
70', Walsh R. (Missed Conversion),
75', Mariner D. (Try),
76', Hunt B. (Missed Conversion),
78', Riki J. (Try),
79', Hunt B. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 0.

Newcastle has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brisbane's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brisbane is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 324:548. (average 16.2:27.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 194:248. (average 16.2:20.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Knights
Australian NRL
17.08.25	North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights	38:4 ✺
08.08.25	Newcastle Knights - Penrith Panthers	12:48 ✺
27.07.25	Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights	44:18 ✺
20.07.25	Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors	15:20 ✺
12.07.25	Newcastle Knights - Melbourne Storm	14:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Brisbane Broncos
Australian NRL
16.08.25	Brisbane Broncos - Dolphins	38:28 ✺
07.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	22:2 ✺
01.08.25	Brisbane Broncos - South Sydney Rabbitohs	60:14 ✺
25.07.25	Brisbane Broncos - Parramatta Eels	20:22 ✺
13.07.25	Gold Coast Titans - Brisbane Broncos	14:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
20.07.24	Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos	14:30
10.06.23	Brisbane Broncos - Newcastle Knights	24:20
13.08.22	Brisbane Broncos - Newcastle Knights	28:10
19.05.22	Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos	12:34
04.09.21	Brisbane Broncos - Newcastle Knights	35:22
05.08.21	Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos	28:20
18.06.20	Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos	27:6

Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide