Match Info

NRL - Round 24

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium (Townsville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Fox League, NRL
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2


	North Queensland Cowboys		Newcastle Knights

	1	X	2
	1.35	26	3.3
	1.4	21	3
	1.32	28	3.6	Watch
	1.20	23.53	4.94	Watch
	1.4	26	3
	1.33	26	3.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.52)	25.09 ↓ (26.67)	3.55 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Queensland Cowboys
70%

Draw
3.7%

Newcastle Knights
26.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.5%

3.5%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

3.6%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Queensland Cowboys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in North Queensland Cowboys's performance.

Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle Knights might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with North Queensland Cowboys that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle Knights could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. North Queensland will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drinkwater S.	1. Votano C.
2. Valemei S.	2. Young D.
3. Purdue J.	3. Gagai D. (C)
5. Burns B.	4. Best B.
6. Clifford J.	5. Marzhew G.
7. Dearden T. (C)	6. Arthur J.
8. McLean J.	7. Cogger J.
9. Robson R.	8. Saifiti J.
10. Taumalolo J.	9. Brailey J.
11. Bateman J.	10. Thompson L.
12. Nanai J.	11. McEwen J.
13. Cotter R.	12. Pearce-Paul K.
18. Vailea V.	13. Frizell T.
Substitutes
4. Laybutt Z.	14. Arthur M.
14. Lawton K.	15. Croker M.
15. Edwards H.	16. Cant T.
17. Mikaele T.	17. Jones B.
Coaches
. Payten T.	. O'Brien A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 0)
4', Drinkwater S. (Try),
6', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
12', Drinkwater S. (Penalty Goal),
30', Dearden T. (Try),
30', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
32', Burns B. (Try),
34', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 4)
47', Purdue J. (Try),
48', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
54', Young D. (Try),
55', Votano C. (Missed Conversion),
67', Nanai J. (Try),
68', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
72', Drinkwater S. (Try),
73', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 4.

North Queensland has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Newcastle is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

In this match, North Queensland is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 445:390. (average 22.3:19.5).

Including home matches between the teams, North Queensland won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 351:192. (average 27:14.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Queensland Cowboys
Australian NRL
10.08.25	Parramatta Eels - North Queensland Cowboys	19:18 ✺
03.08.25	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - North Queensland Cowboys	32:12 ✺
25.07.25	North Queensland Cowboys - St. George Illawarra Dragons	38:32 ✺
17.07.25	Dolphins - North Queensland Cowboys	43:24 ✺
12.07.25	North Queensland Cowboys - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	8:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWLL
- Newcastle Knights
Australian NRL
08.08.25	Newcastle Knights - Penrith Panthers	12:48 ✺
27.07.25	Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights	44:18 ✺
20.07.25	Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors	15:20 ✺
12.07.25	Newcastle Knights - Melbourne Storm	14:32 ✺
27.06.25	Newcastle Knights - Canberra Raiders	18:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
14.09.24	North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights	28:16
16.03.24	North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights	21:20 OT
22.04.23	North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights	18:16
07.05.22	North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights	36:16
03.07.21	Newcastle Knights - North Queensland Cowboys	38:0
20.05.21	North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights	36:20
23.08.20	Newcastle Knights - North Queensland Cowboys	12:0

North Queensland Cowboys - Newcastle Knights: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide