Match Info

NRL - Round 27

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium (Townsville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	North Queensland Cowboys		Canberra Raiders

	1	X	2
	1.5	29	2.6
	1.52	18	2.7
	1.44	21	2.63	Watch
	1.44		2.70	Watch
	1.48	23	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.4)	18.2 ↓ (23)	2.68 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-34)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Queensland Cowboys
61.2%

Draw
5%

Canberra Raiders
33.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.7%

3.9%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

3.8%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Queensland Cowboys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 44:10

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drinkwater S.	1. Weekes K.
2. Burns B.	2. Stuart J.
3. Purdue J.	3. Sasagi S.
4. Chester T.	4. Timoko M.
5. Derby R.	5. Savage X.
6. Clifford J.	6. Strange E.
7. Dearden T. (C)	7. Black C.
8. Hess C.	8. Papalii J.
9. Mahoney R.	9. Pattie O.
10. Taumalolo J.	10. Tapine J.
11. Luki H.	11. Martin N.
12. Bateman J.	12. Nicholson M.
13. Cotter R.	13. Mariota A.
Substitutes
14. Luke S.	14. Smith M.
15. McIntyre S.	15. Roddy J.
16. Mikaele T.	16. Smithies M.
17. Lahrs K.	17. Patuki-Case V.
18. O'Donnell K.	18. Starling T.
19. King E.	19. Laurie D.
Coaches
. Payten T.	. Stuart R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 30)
11', Savage X. (Try),
12', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
13', Weekes K. (Try),
15', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
16', Black C. (Try),
17', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
20', Clifford J. (Try),
21', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
22', Bateman J. (Try),
24', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
30', Papalii J. (Try),
31', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
33', Savage X. (Try),
35', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 20)
45', Drinkwater S. (Try),
47', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
50', Black C. (Try),
52', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
59', Burns B. (Try),
60', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
62', Savage X. (Try),
64', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
65', Strange E. (Try),
66', Black C. (Conversion Goal),
72', Taumalolo J. (Try),
73', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
76', Black C. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Canberra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

North Queensland might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 460:378. (average 23:18.9).

Including home matches between the teams, North Queensland won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 262:180. (average 23.8:16.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Queensland Cowboys
Australian NRL
29.08.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Wests Tigers	24:10 ✺
15.08.26	Parramatta Eels - North Queensland Cowboys	32:30 ✺
06.08.26	Gold Coast Titans - North Queensland Cowboys	8:30 ✺
30.07.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Sydney Roosters	12:82 ✺
25.07.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	18:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWLW
- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
21.08.26	Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos	30:34 ✺
15.08.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Canberra Raiders	20:24 ✺
09.08.26	Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights	24:30 ✺
01.08.26	Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders	42:18 ✺
25.07.26	Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers	56:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
31.05.26	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	26:12
29.03.25	North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders	30:20
17.08.24	North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders	42:4
14.06.24	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	16:34
24.02.24	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	26:36
04.03.23	North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders	19:18
14.04.22	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	12:18

North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide