Match Info

NRL - Round 25

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Referee: Gee A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2


	Canberra Raiders		Brisbane Broncos

	1	X	2
	1.3	26	3.6
	1.31	17.5	3.6
	1.3	18	3.8
	1.3	27.3	3.63	Watch
	1.30		3.30
	1.31	26	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.65)	19.13 ↓ (22.18)	3.59 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canberra Raiders
69.9%

Draw
4.8%

Brisbane Broncos
25.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56%

4.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

4.1%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canberra Raiders's performance.

Brisbane Broncos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brisbane Broncos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canberra Raiders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Broncos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Canberra will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Brisbane will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weekes K.	1. Perham H.
2. Stuart J.	2. Karapani J.
3. Sasagi S.	3. Staggs K.
4. Timoko M.	4. Mariner D.
5. Savage X.	5. Anderson G.
6. Strange E.	6. Mam E.
7. Sanders E.	7. Hunt B.
8. Papalii J.	8. Willison X.
9. Pattie O.	9. Walters B.
10. Tapine J. (C)	10. Haas P.
11. Hosking Z.	11. Hunt J.
12. Nicholson M.	12. Riki J.
13. Mariota A.	13. Carrigan P. (C)
Substitutes
14. Starling T.	14. Mozer B.
15. Roddy J.	15. Tawha A.
16. Horsburgh C.	16. Gosiewski J.
17. Laurie D.	17. Semu V.
18. Patuki-Case V.	18. Duffy T.
19. Tamale S.	19. Shibasaki G.
Coaches
. Stuart R.	. Maguire M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (18 - 16)
9', Walters B. (Try),
10', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),
17', Weekes K. (Try),
18', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
23', Mariota A. (Try),
24', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
27', Mam E. (Try),
29', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),
33', Anderson G. (Try),
34', Perham H. (Missed Conversion),
40', Weekes K. (Try),
40', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 18)
43', Pattie O. (Try),
44', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
61', Hosking Z. (Try),
62', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
64', Haas P. (Try),
66', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),
67', Anderson G. (Try),
68', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),
74', Perham H. (Try),
76', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 3.

Canberra has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brisbane has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Canberra is the team to beat.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 378:402. (average 21:22.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 272:235. (average 24.7:21.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
15.08.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Canberra Raiders	20:24 ✺
09.08.26	Canberra Raiders - Newcastle Knights	24:30 ✺
01.08.26	Penrith Panthers - Canberra Raiders	42:18 ✺
25.07.26	Canberra Raiders - Wests Tigers	56:10 ✺
18.07.26	Canberra Raiders - South Sydney Rabbitohs	34:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLLWW
- Brisbane Broncos
Australian NRL
15.08.26	Brisbane Broncos - New Zealand Warriors	6:40 ✺
08.08.26	Dolphins - Brisbane Broncos	40:32 ✺
01.08.26	Brisbane Broncos - Newcastle Knights	6:30 ✺
25.07.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	18:10 ✺
16.07.26	Penrith Panthers - Brisbane Broncos	12:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
14.09.25	Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos	28:26
15.03.25	Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos	32:22
20.04.24	Brisbane Broncos - Canberra Raiders	34:10
26.08.23	Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos	18:29
08.04.23	Brisbane Broncos - Canberra Raiders	14:20
11.06.22	Brisbane Broncos - Canberra Raiders	24:18
12.06.21	Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos	38:16

Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide