Match Info

NRL - Round 21

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium (Townsville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Germany	Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 1


	North Queensland Cowboys		Brisbane Broncos

	1	X	2
	2.35	23	1.62
	2.45	18	1.62
	2.52	22.69	1.58	Watch
	2.5	19	1.59
	2.49	22	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.88)	20.94 ↓ (23.65)	1.6 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Queensland Cowboys
37.6%

Draw
4.4%

Brisbane Broncos
58%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.2%

3.9%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

3.7%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Queensland Cowboys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Queensland Cowboys's form might have worsened.

Brisbane Broncos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brisbane Broncos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Queensland Cowboys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brisbane Broncos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. North Queensland will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 - North Queensland (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. North Queensland (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drinkwater S.	1. Walsh R.
2. Burns B.	2. Karapani J.
3. Purdue J.	3. Staggs K.
4. Chester T.	4. Shibasaki G.
5. Taulagi M.	5. Mariner D.
6. Clifford J.	6. Mam E.
9. Mahoney R.	7. Reynolds A. (C)
10. Taumalolo J.	8. Riki P.
11. Luki H.	9. Paix C.
12. Nanai J.	10. Haas P.
13. Cotter R. (C)	11. Willison X.
15. Neame G.	12. Riki J.
18. Laybutt Z.	13. Carrigan P.
Substitutes
8. Mikaele T.	14. Hunt B.
14. Luke S.	15. Talty B.
16. Lodge M.	16. Semu V.
17. Hess C.	17. Anderson G.
20. McIntyre S.	18. Walters B.
21. King E.	19. Gale L.
Coaches
. Payten T.	. Maguire M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 4)
20', Luki H. (Try),
21', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
24', Willison X. (Try),
26', Reynolds A. (Missed Conversion),
37', Drinkwater S. (Penalty Goal),
40', Clifford J. (Try),
40', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (4 - 6)
50', Drinkwater S. (Penalty Goal),
55', Mam E. (Try),
56', Reynolds A. (Conversion Goal),
68', Drinkwater S. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 1.

North Queensland has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Brisbane's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

North Queensland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Brisbane will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that North Queensland will win today's game, with odds of 2.47.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 448:530. (average 22.4:26.5).

Including home matches between the teams, North Queensland won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 253:293. (average 23:26.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Queensland Cowboys
Australian NRL
19.07.26	Dolphins - North Queensland Cowboys	36:16 ✺
12.07.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys	18:19 OT ✺
27.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Penrith Panthers	26:12 ✺
21.06.26	New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys	38:20 ✺
06.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Dolphins	14:40 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWLL
- Brisbane Broncos
Australian NRL
16.07.26	Penrith Panthers - Brisbane Broncos	12:14 ✺
04.07.26	Brisbane Broncos - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	16:28 ✺
26.06.26	Brisbane Broncos - Sydney Roosters	18:24 ✺
11.06.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Brisbane Broncos	48:6 ✺
06.06.26	Brisbane Broncos - Gold Coast Titans	23:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
10.04.26	Brisbane Broncos - North Queensland Cowboys	31:35
30.08.25	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	30:38
21.03.25	Brisbane Broncos - North Queensland Cowboys	26:16
10.08.24	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	18:42
29.03.24	Brisbane Broncos - North Queensland Cowboys	38:12
18.02.24	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	20:46
05.08.23	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	14:30

North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide