Match Info

NRL - Round 22

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium (Townsville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, Nine, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+


	North Queensland Cowboys		Sydney Roosters

	1	X	2
	2.45	26	1.57
	2.5	20	1.6
	2.52	22.69	1.58	Watch
	2.45	26	1.58	Watch
	2.5	21	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.49)	23.14 ↓ (23.94)	1.58 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Queensland Cowboys
37.3%

Draw
4%

Sydney Roosters
58.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.3%

3.9%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for North Queensland Cowboys have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Sydney Roosters has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Roosters than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

North Queensland Cowboys - Sydney Roosters Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 19:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drinkwater S.	1. Tedesco J. (C)
2. Burns B.	2. Talau T.
3. Laybutt Z.	3. Savala H.
4. Chester T.	4. Toia R.
5. Taulagi M.	5. Nawaqanitawase M.
6. Clifford J.	6. Cherry-Evans D.
7. Purdue J.	7. Walker S.
8. Mikaele T.	8. Whyte N.
9. Luke S.	9. Robson R.
10. Taumalolo J.	11. Butcher N.
11. Luki H.	12. Wong S.
12. Nanai J.	13. Radley V.
13. Cotter R. (C)	15. Foketi S.
Substitutes
14. King E.	10. Leniu S.
16. Lodge M.	14. Watson C.
17. Hess C.	16. Butcher E.
18. McIntyre S.	17. Losalu T.
19. Lahrs K.	18. Ramsey C.
20. O'Donnell K.	19. Foley R.
Coaches
. Payten T.	. Robinson T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 48)
3', Tedesco J. (Try),
4', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
11', Burns B. (Try),
12', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
15', Walker S. (Try),
17', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
19', Savala H. (Try),
20', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
26', Walker S. (Try),
27', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
29', Foketi S. (Try),
30', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
32', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
34', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
36', Talau T. (Try),
37', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
38', Tedesco J. (Try),
39', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (6 - 34)
42', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
44', Walker S. (Missed Conversion),
55', Chester T. (Try),
56', Drinkwater S. (Conversion Goal),
62', Toia R. (Try),
63', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
68', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
69', Ramsey C. (Conversion Goal),
72', Walker S. (Try),
74', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
76', Savala H. (Try),
78', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
79', Ramsey C. (Try),
80', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 3.

North Queensland has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sydney is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sydney is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Queensland won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 377:436. (average 18.9:21.8).

Including home matches between the teams, North Queensland won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 159:169. (average 19.9:21.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Queensland Cowboys
Australian NRL
25.07.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	18:10 ✺
19.07.26	Dolphins - North Queensland Cowboys	36:16 ✺
12.07.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys	18:19 OT ✺
27.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Penrith Panthers	26:12 ✺
21.06.26	New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys	38:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLWWL
- Sydney Roosters
Australian NRL
24.07.26	Newcastle Knights - Sydney Roosters	22:23 ✺
17.07.26	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	14:6 ✺
11.07.26	Sydney Roosters - Parramatta Eels	28:12 ✺
26.06.26	Brisbane Broncos - Sydney Roosters	18:24 ✺
21.06.26	Sydney Roosters - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	27:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
16.05.26	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	12:18
22.06.25	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	42:8
02.06.24	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	16:18
07.05.23	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	6:20
13.08.22	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	32:18
02.04.22	North Queensland Cowboys - Sydney Roosters	4:28
17.07.21	North Queensland Cowboys - Sydney Roosters	18:34

North Queensland Cowboys - Sydney Roosters: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide