Match Info

NRL - Round 16

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: One NZ Stadium (Christchurch)

Referee: Atkins G. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 1


	New Zealand Warriors		North Queensland Cowboys

	1	X	2
	1.44	26	2.85
	1.48	18	3
	1.43	22.52	3.02	Watch
	1.4	23	3.1
	1.46	22	2.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.32)	22.3 ↓ (22.35)	2.97 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New Zealand Warriors
64.5%

Draw
4.2%

North Queensland Cowboys
31.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.5%

4.2%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68%

4.4%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Zealand Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that New Zealand Warriors's form might have worsened.

North Queensland Cowboys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting North Queensland Cowboys's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Queensland Cowboys than the current prediction. (-5%)

New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tuaupiki T.	1. Drinkwater S.
2. Watene-Zelezniak D.	2. Burns B.
3. Leiataua A.	3. Laybutt Z.
4. Pompey A.	4. Chester T.
5. Nicoll-Klokstad C.	5. Taulagi M.
6. Harris-Tavita C.	6. Purdue J.
7. Martin T.	7. Clifford J.
9. Egan W.	9. Mahoney R.
10. Ford J.	11. Luki H.
11. Laban J.	12. Nanai J.
12. Niukore M.	13. Cotter R.
13. Clark E.	15. Neame G.
22. Barnett M.	17. Hess C.
Substitutes
8. Stowers-Smith T.	8. Mikaele T.
15. Ieremia-Toeava E.	10. Taumalolo J.
16. Vaimauga D.	14. Luke S.
17. Fatialofa K.	16. Lodge M.
20. Metcalf L.	19. McIntyre S.
21. Tafua M.	20. Bateman J.
Coaches
. Webster A.	. Payten T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 10)
7', Nicoll-Klokstad C. (Try),
9', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
10', Nicoll-Klokstad C. (Try),
23', Burns B. (Try),
27', Drinkwater S. (Try),
28', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
34', Nicoll-Klokstad C. (Try),
2nd Half (24 - 10)
48', Nicoll-Klokstad C. (Try),
50', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
55', Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
57', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
62', Burns B. (Try),
63', Clifford J. (Conversion Goal),
70', Pompey A. (Try),
71', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
74', Tuaupiki T. (Try),
75', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
77', Nanai J. (Try),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

North Queensland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, New Zealand is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 435:496. (average 21.8:24.8).

Including home matches between the teams, New Zealand won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 238:225. (average 23.8:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Zealand Warriors
Australian NRL
13.06.26	New Zealand Warriors - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	8:10 ✺
31.05.26	Penrith Panthers - New Zealand Warriors	20:18 ✺
23.05.26	St. George Illawarra Dragons - New Zealand Warriors	12:30 ✺
17.05.26	New Zealand Warriors - Brisbane Broncos	42:12 ✺
02.05.26	Parramatta Eels - New Zealand Warriors	14:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWW
- North Queensland Cowboys
Australian NRL
06.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Dolphins	14:40 ✺
31.05.26	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	26:12 ✺
24.05.26	North Queensland Cowboys - South Sydney Rabbitohs	30:18 ✺
16.05.26	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	12:18 ✺
08.05.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Parramatta Eels	30:33 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
03.05.25	New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys	30:26
08.06.24	North Queensland Cowboys - New Zealand Warriors	12:42
15.04.23	New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys	22:14
18.03.23	North Queensland Cowboys - New Zealand Warriors	12:26
19.08.22	North Queensland Cowboys - New Zealand Warriors	48:4
08.04.22	New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys	25:24 OT
28.05.21	North Queensland Cowboys - New Zealand Warriors	29:28

New Zealand Warriors - North Queensland Cowboys: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide