Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 10

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cardiff Rugby		Benetton Treviso

	1	X	2
	1.4	21	3.1
	1.33	21	3.4
	1.36	21	3.25
	1.4	20.8	3.2	Watch
	1.36	21	3.2
	1.34	19	3.52
	1.4	21	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.36)	20.69 ↓ (22.41)	3.26 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
67.3%

Draw
4.5%

Benetton Treviso
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

4.2%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

79.2%

4.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Benetton Treviso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cardiff Rugby, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benetton Treviso than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cardiff Rugby - Benetton Treviso Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:17

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 0)
2nd Half (11 - 8)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.

Cardiff has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Benetton is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Cardiff is considered a favorite.

We predict that Cardiff will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 561:474. (average 28.1:23.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 305:156. (average 33.9:17.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Cardiff Rugby	3	2	0	1	66:71	9
15	Benetton	3	0	1	2	64:68	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby	31:0 ✺
10.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Racing Métro	32:13 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:19 ✺
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLWL
- Benetton Treviso rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Lyon - Benetton Treviso	19:38 ✺
10.01.26	Benetton Treviso - Newport Gwent Dragons	74:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Benetton Treviso - Edinburgh	14:15 ✺
27.12.25	Zebre - Benetton Treviso	23:37 ✺
20.12.25	Benetton Treviso - Zebre	21:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	20:19
21.10.23	Cardiff Rugby - Benetton Treviso	22:23
Challenge Cup Rugby
08.04.23	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	27:23
United Rugby Championship
18.02.23	Cardiff Rugby - Benetton Treviso	30:13
20.05.22	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	69:21
14.03.21	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	14:29
16.11.20	Cardiff Rugby - Benetton Treviso	22:5

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