Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Exeter Chiefs		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.07	41	8
	1.07	40	7.6
	1.07	34.19	8.7	Watch
	1.06	34	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.07 ↓ (1.12)	37.3 ↑ (32.13)	8.08 ↑ (6.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter Chiefs
86.1%

Draw
2.5%

Cardiff Rugby
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

82.6%

2.9%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sio S.	1. Southworth D.
2. Dweba J.	2. Lloyd E.
3. Tchumbadze B.	3. Wainwright S.
4. Jenkins D. (C)	4. McNally J. (C)
5. Zambonin A.	5. Thornton R.
6. Hooper T.	6. Botham J.
7. Roots E.	7. Thomas D.
8. James K.	8. Basham T.
9. Varney S.	9. Mulder J.
10. Skinner H.	10. Lloyd E.
11. Brown-Bampoe P.	11. Bowen T.
12. Haydon-Wood W.	12. Jennings R.
13. Slade H.	13. Smit C.
14. Feyi-Waboso I.	14. Grady M.
15. Woodburn O.	15. Beetham J.
Substitutes
16. Heaven J.	16. Hughes D.
17. Goodrick-Clarke W.	17. Domachowski C.
18. Roots J.	18. Sebastian J.
19. Tuima R.	19. Nott G.
20. Pearson L.	20. Lawrence A.
21. Capstick R.	21. Cottle T.
22. Chapman C.	22. Davies I.
23. Hammersley B.	23. Winnett C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 0)
6', Tchumbadze B. (Try),
7', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
19', Thornton R. 🟨,
21', Tchumbadze B. (Try),
21', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
24', Dweba J. (Try),
2nd Half (12 - 0)
66', Heaven J. (Try),
67', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
77', Brown-Bampoe P. (Try),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Exeter has had a series of away games.

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of home games.

In this match, Exeter is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 63:42. (average 31.5:21).

Including home match between the teams, Exeter won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 44:29.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter Chiefs
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Stade Français - Exeter Chiefs	27:25 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.26	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	33:26 ✺
28.12.25	Exeter Chiefs - Leicester Tigers	24:10 ✺
20.12.25	Saracens - Exeter Chiefs	24:30 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Racing Métro - Exeter Chiefs	31:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LLWWT
- Cardiff Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Racing Métro	32:13 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:19 ✺
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	29:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heineken Cup
18.01.14	Cardiff Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	13:19
13.10.13	Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby	44:29

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