Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 12

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	15:00	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Connacht		Glasgow Warriors

	1	X	2
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.62	20	2.37
	1.64	20.32	2.39	Watch
	1.62	21	2.38
	1.68	19.1	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.71)	20.28 ↑ (20.11)	2.39 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
56.8%

Draw
4.6%

Glasgow Warriors
38.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.4%

4.6%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Glasgow Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glasgow Warriors than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Connacht - Glasgow Warriors Predictions

Users Predictions: Connacht will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Connacht will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:20

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2nd Half (12 - 10)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 2.

In recent matches, Connacht has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Glasgow Warriors is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Connacht might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Connacht will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 351:508. (average 18.5:26.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Connacht won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 183:264. (average 16.6:24).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Glasgow Warriors	5	4	1	0	148:112	22
8	Connacht	5	2	0	3	109:161	10

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Glasgow Warriors: 16.48% Connacht: 0.74%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Zebre - Connacht	15:31 ✺
24.01.26	Connacht - Leinster	23:34 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Connacht - Montauban	75:14 ✺
11.01.26	Montpellier - Connacht	33:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLWLL
- Glasgow Warriors
United Rugby Championship
30.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Munster	31:22 ✺
24.01.26	Zebre - Glasgow Warriors	21:26 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Saracens	28:3 ✺
10.01.26	Clermont - Glasgow Warriors	21:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Zebre	47:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
26.01.25	Glasgow Warriors - Connacht	22:19
28.10.23	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	34:24
22.04.23	Glasgow Warriors - Connacht	29:27
29.01.22	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	20:42
03.10.20	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	28:24
22.02.19	Glasgow Warriors - Connacht	43:17
01.09.18	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	26:27

Connacht - Glasgow Warriors