Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Connacht		Montauban

	1	X	2
	1	51	21
	1.01	30	15
				Watch
	1	29	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 (1)	36.67 ↑ (35.5)	17.67 ↑ (16.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-30)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
92.2%

Draw
2.5%

Montauban
5.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.8%

2.6%

5.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Montauban has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Connacht - Montauban Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -29.5 - Connacht (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Connacht (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 48:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bohan B.	1. Seyrolle L.
2. Heffernan D.	2. Da Costa M.
3. Illo S.	3. Mafileo S.
4. Murray D.	4. Bitz C.
5. Murphy J.	5. Bean L.
6. Prendergast C.	6. Quercy F.
7. Boyle P.	7. Uanivi T.
8. Jansen S.	8. Maafu N.
9. Devine M.	9. Zabalza H.
10. Carty J.	10. Bosviel J.
11. Treacy F.	11. Vallee P.
12. Forde C.	12. Mathy M.
13. West H.	13. Renda S.
14. Jennings S.	14. Gade A. P.
15. Gilbert S.	15. Seux J.
Substitutes
16. Tierney-Martin D.	16. Greyling R.
17. Buckley D.	17. Aouf L.
18. Aungier J.	18. Kanika N.
19. Joyce J.	19. Wilkins K.
20. O'Brien S.	20. Castel M.
21. Murphy B.	21. Fortunel T.
22. Naughton S.	22. Popoali’i G.
23. Walsh S.	23. Pomponio F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (56 - 7)
8', Boyle P. (Try),
9', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
20', Prendergast C. (Try),
20', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
22', Seux J. (Try),
23', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
26', Gilbert S. (Try),
26', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
29', Greyling R. 🟥,
30', Gade A. P. 🟨,
30', (Penalty Try),
32', West H. (Try),
33', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
35', Prendergast C. (Try),
36', Devine M. (Try),
36', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
37', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Boyle P. (Try),
40+2', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (19 - 7)
46', Jansen S. (Try),
65', Pomponio F. 🟨,
66', Jennings S. (Try),
67', Naughton S. (Conversion Goal),
74', Vallee P. (Try),
74', Fortunel T. (Conversion Goal),
75', Aungier J. 🟨,
80+2', Tierney-Martin D. (Try),
80+3', Naughton S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Connacht has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montauban has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Montauban has had a series of home games.

In this match, Connacht is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.26	Montpellier - Connacht	33:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
27.12.25	Connacht - Ulster	24:29 ✺
20.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	48:28 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Connacht - Black Lion	52:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLW
- US Montauban
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Montauban - Black Lion	28:31 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montauban - Clermont	19:34 ✺
27.12.25	Racing Métro - Montauban	61:16 ✺
20.12.25	Montauban - Section Paloise	17:53 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Montauban - Ospreys	22:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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