Match Info
United Rugby Championship - Round 9Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin) 🌤️ ...Where to Watch on TV: | Country | Kick-Off | TV Channels |
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 Africa | — | SuperSport Variety 1 |
 Ireland | 17:30 | TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland |
 United Kingdom | 17:30 | FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, URC |
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 |
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Leinster |
|
Connacht |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.05 |
41 |
9 |
|
 |
1.04 |
40 |
9.4 |
|
 |
1.05 |
32.16 |
10.97 |
 Watch |
 |
1.04 |
34 |
9.5 |
|
 |
1.07 |
21 |
10.2 |
|
 |
1.05 |
46 |
9 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.05 ↓
(1.06) |
35.69 ↑
(32.23) |
9.68 ↓
(9.74) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 52.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-19)
- The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Leinster
87.9% | Draw
2.6% | Connacht
9.5% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)The chances for Connacht have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Leinster - Connacht Predictions
Users Predictions:
2 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 2 - 100%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leinster (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:17 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (19 - 17)
- 2nd Half (33 - 0)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 5.Leinster is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).In recent matches, Connacht has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Leinster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Leinster is the clear favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 18 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 650:341. (average 32.5:17.1).Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 353:172. (average 35.3:17.2).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
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| 6 | Connacht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 104:111 | 9 |
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| 11 | Leinster | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 75:58 | 8 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| United Rugby Championship | | | 21.12.24 | Leinster - Connacht | 20:12 | | 19.10.24 | Connacht - Leinster | 12:33 | | 31.05.24 | Leinster - Connacht | 33:7 | | 02.12.23 | Connacht - Leinster | 22:24 | | 01.01.23 | Leinster - Connacht | 41:12 | | 14.10.22 | Connacht - Leinster | 0:10 | | European Rugby Champions Cup | | | 15.04.22 | Leinster - Connacht | 56:20 |
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