The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Exeter Chiefs 50.5%
Draw 4.6%
Saracens 45%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.8%
4.6%
50.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44%
4.5%
51.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Exeter Chiefs's performance.
Saracens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Saracens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter Chiefs that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Saracens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Exeter Chiefs - Saracens Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:26
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Sio S.
1. Mawi E.
2. Norey M.
2. George J.
3. Iosefa-Scott J.
3. Street M.
4. Jenkins D.
4. Itoje M.
5. Zambonin A.
5. Tizard H.
6. Hooper T.
6. McFarland T.
7. Tshiunza C.
7. Earl B.
8. Roots E.
8. Willis T.
9. Varney S.
9. Bracken C.
10. Skinner H.
10. Burke F.
11. Ridl C.
11. Segun R.
12. Ikitau L.
12. Hartley O.
13. Slade H.
13. Tompkins N.
14. Brown-Bampoe P.
14. Elliott T.
15. Woodburn O.
15. Malins M.
Substitutes
16. Dweba J.
16. Dan T.
17. Burger E.
17. Carre R.
18. Tchumbadze B.
18. Riccioni M.
19. Tuima R.
19. Isiekwe N.
20. James K.
20. Michelow N.
21. Cairns T.
21. van Zyl I.
22. Wimbush Z.
22. Farrell O.
23. Hammersley B.
23. Caluori N.
Coaches
. Baxter R.
. McCall M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (8 - 5)
7', Elliott T. (Try),
8', Burke F. (Missed Conversion),
17', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
40+3', Bracken C. 🟨,
40+3', Norey M. (Try),
40+4', Slade H. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (24 - 7)
41', Street M. ↓, Riccioni M. ↑,
45', Mawi E. ↓, Carre R. ↑,
46', Slade H. (Try),
47', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
47', Roots E. ↓, James K. ↑,
51', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
54', Burke F. ↓, Farrell O. ↑,
54', George J. ↓, Dan T. ↑,
54', McFarland T. ↓, Isiekwe N. ↑,
54', Segun R. ↓, Caluori N. ↑,
62', Iosefa-Scott J. ↓, Tchumbadze B. ↑,
62', Norey M. ↓, Dweba J. ↑,
62', Sio S. ↓, Burger E. ↑,
64', Zambonin A. (Try),
65', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
66', Bracken C. ↓, van Zyl I. ↑,
66', Tizard H. ↓, Michelow N. ↑,
75', (Try),
75', (Conversion Goal),
79', (Try),
79', (Conversion Goal),
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership Rugby (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 3.
Exeter has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Saracens is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Recently, Exeter has had a series of away games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 456:476. (average 22.8:23.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 308:201. (average 28:18.3).
Africa
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Czech-republic
Mexico
New-zealand
Peru
Slovakia
United-kingdom
Uruguay
Venezuela
Watch
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Sio S. 
Mawi E. 
Norey M. 
Iosefa-Scott J. 
Jenkins D. 
Zambonin A. 
Hooper T. 
Burke F. 
Dweba J. 
Tchumbadze B. 
Wimbush Z. 
McCall M. 
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