Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 16

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Parc y Scarlets (Llanelli) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Supersport Action
Argentina	13:15	Disney+
Brazil	13:15	Disney+
Chile	12:15	Disney+
Colombia	11:15	Disney+
Denmark	18:15	Viaplay
Finland	19:15	Viaplay
Iceland	16:15	Viaplay
Ireland	17:15	RTE 2, RTE Player, TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
Mexico	10:15	Disney+
Netherlands	18:15	Viaplay
Norway	18:15	Viaplay
Peru	11:15	Disney+
Poland	18:15	Viaplay
Sweden	18:15	Viaplay
United Kingdom	17:15	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC
Uruguay	13:15	Disney+
Venezuela	12:15	Disney+


	Llanelli Scarlets		Leinster

	1	X	2
	4	26	1.25
	5	34	1.14
	4.5	26	1.24
	4.34	23.28	1.25
	4	26	1.25
	3.79	21	1.3
	4.5	26	1.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.3 ↑ (3.5)	26.04 ↑ (23.8)	1.24 ↓ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli Scarlets
21.5%

Draw
3.6%

Leinster
74.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.6%

3.9%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

3.9%

69.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Llanelli Scarlets's form might have worsened.

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leinster's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanelli Scarlets than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leinster than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leinster, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Llanelli Scarlets - Leinster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 20:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hepburn A.	1. Healy C.
2. Elias R.	2. Kelleher R.
3. Thomas H.	3. Clarkson T.
4. Craig A.	4. Baird R.
5. Lousi S.	5. Deeny B.
6. Fifita V.	6. Soroka A.
7. Macleod J.	7. Connors W.
8. Plumtree T.	8. Culhane J.
9. Davies G.	9. Gunne F.
10. Costelow S.	10. Byrne R.
11. Mee E.	11. O'Brien J.
12. Williams J.	12. Osborne J.
13. Roberts J.	13. Turner L.
14. Rogers T.	14. Osborne A.
15. Murray B.	15. Frawley C.
Substitutes
16. van der Merwe M.	16. McCarthy G.
17. Trevett L.	17. Boyle J.
18. Wainwright S.	18. Slimani R.
19. Price J.	19. Mangan D.
20. Taylor J.	20. Penny S.
21. Hughes A.	21. Foley C.
22. Lloyd I.	22. Tector C.
23. Page M.	23. Moloney R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 15)
9', Davies G. (Try),
9', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
13', Costelow S. (Penalty Goal),
18', Byrne R. (Penalty Goal),
22', Rogers T. (Try),
24', Osborne J. (Try),
25', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
30', Plumtree T. (Try),
31', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
35', Mangan D. (Try),
2nd Half (13 - 7)
42', Roberts J. (Try),
43', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
48', Culhane J. (Try),
48', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
55', Lloyd I. (Penalty Goal),
80+1', (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Scarlets won 0.

Recent matches Scarlets is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Leinster is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Leinster is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Scarlets won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 353:629 (average 17.7:31.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Scarlets won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 168:216 (average 21:27).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
19.04.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	23:31 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.25	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	36:14 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	38:22 ✺
22.03.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Stormers	17:29 ✺
01.03.25	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	30:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLL
- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.04.25	Leinster - Ulster	41:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.25	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	52:0 ✺
05.04.25	Leinster - Harlequins	62:0 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Sharks - Leinster	7:10 ✺
22.03.25	Blue Bulls - Leinster	21:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
18.11.23	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	54:5
28.10.22	Llanelli Scarlets - Leinster	5:35
16.10.21	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	50:15
30.01.21	Llanelli Scarlets - Leinster	25:52
25.01.19	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	22:17
08.09.18	Llanelli Scarlets - Leinster	23:21
26.05.18	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	40:32

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