Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 7 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Leinster		Glasgow Warriors

	1	X	2
	1.17	34	5
	1.14	26	5.5
	1.17	30	5.4
	1.14	40	5.6	Watch
	1.17	34	5
	1.12	23	6
	1.17	30	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↑ (1.09)	31 ↓ (33.75)	5.41 ↓ (7.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
80%

Draw
3%

Glasgow Warriors
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.3%

2.7%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leinster's form might have worsened.

Glasgow Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Glasgow Warriors's recent form is better than expected.

Leinster - Glasgow Warriors Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -12.5 - Leinster (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leinster (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:17

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Porter A.	1. Bhatti J.
2. Sheehan D.	2. Hiddleston G.
3. Clarkson T.	3. Richardson F.
4. McCarthy J.	4. Samuel A.
5. Ryan J.	5. Cummings S.
6. Baird R.	6. Ferrie E.
7. Penny S.	7. Darge R.
8. Conan J.	8. Venter H.
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. Horne G.
10. Prendergast S.	10. Hastings A.
11. Lowe J.	11. Rowe K.
12. Barrett J.	12. Jordan T.
13. Osborne J.	13. Tuipulotu S.
14. O'Brien T.	14. Steyn K.
15. O'Brien J.	15. Mckay J.
Substitutes
16. Kelleher R.	16. Matthews J.
17. Boyle J.	17. Sutherland R.
18. Slimani R.	18. Talakai S.
19. Snyman R.	19. Williamson M.
20. Deegan M.	20. Mann J.
21. McGrath L.	21. McKenzie D.
22. Byrne R.	22. McDowell S.
23. Frawley C.	23. Dobie J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (25 - 5)
3', Sheehan D. (Try),
4', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
5', Horne G. (Try),
23', Prendergast S. (Penalty Goal),
28', Osborne J. (Try),
33', Clarkson T. (Try),
40+1', Sheehan D. (Try),
2nd Half (12 - 14)
54', Osborne J. (Try),
55', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
58', Frawley C. (Try),
72', Dobie J. (Try),
73', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
79', Tuipulotu S. (Try),
79', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Glasgow Warriors may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Leinster has had a series of home games.

In this match, Leinster is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 636:381. (average 31.8:19.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 409:170. (average 40.9:17).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
31.05.25	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	33:21 ✺
17.05.25	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	13:5 ✺
10.05.25	Leinster - Zebre	76:5 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.05.25	Leinster - Northampton Saints	34:37 ✺
United Rugby Championship
26.04.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Leinster	35:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWWLL
- Glasgow Warriors
United Rugby Championship
30.05.25	Glasgow Warriors - Stormers	36:18 ✺
17.05.25	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	13:5 ✺
10.05.25	Benetton Treviso - Glasgow Warriors	33:7 ✺
25.04.25	Glasgow Warriors - Blue Bulls	19:26 ✺
19.04.25	Zebre - Glasgow Warriors	6:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
17.05.25	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	13:5
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.25	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	52:0
United Rugby Championship
22.10.23	Glasgow Warriors - Leinster	43:25
26.11.22	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	40:5
04.06.22	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	76:14
22.10.21	Glasgow Warriors - Leinster	15:31
Pro14 Rainbow Cup
04.06.21	Glasgow Warriors - Leinster	15:12

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