Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 10

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Parc y Scarlets (Llanelli)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Llanelli Scarlets		Ulster

	1	X	2
	3.2	23	1.36
	3.5	22	1.32
	3.4	20.68	1.36	Watch
	3.25	21	1.36
	3.49	21	1.37
	3.25	26	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↓ (3.41)	22.28 ↓ (22.41)	1.36 (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli Scarlets
27.6%

Draw
4.1%

Ulster
68.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

4.2%

68.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

4.4%

64.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli Scarlets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanelli Scarlets than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 42.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 17:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 12)
2nd Half (10 - 10)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Scarlets won 0.

Recent form of Scarlets has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ulster is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Ulster is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Scarlets won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 384:443. (average 19.2:22.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Scarlets won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 206:171. (average 25.8:21.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
10	Ulster	3	0	2	1	88:93	7
11	Scarlets	3	1	0	2	68:85	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli Scarlets
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.26	Northampton Saints - Llanelli Scarlets	43:28 ✺
10.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Section Paloise	38:47 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	28:5 ✺
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26 ✺
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLLW
- Ulster Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ulster - Stade Français	26:19 ✺
11.01.26	Cheetahs - Ulster	0:28 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Connacht - Ulster	24:29 ✺
19.12.25	Leinster - Ulster	24:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
01.03.25	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	30:28
11.05.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	20:31
24.09.22	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	39:55
28.01.22	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	27:15
Pro14 Rainbow Cup
29.05.21	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	Scarlets awarded
United Rugby Championship
22.11.20	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	26:24
29.11.19	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	29:5

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