Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Go Media Stadium (Auckland)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Moana Pasifika		Fijian Drua

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.4	21	2.9
	1.46	28	2.85
	1.44	22.93	2.97
	1.44	23	2.8
	1.45	21	2.9
	1.46	28	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.62)	23.56 ↓ (29.5)	2.88 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moana Pasifika
64%

Draw
3.9%

Fijian Drua
32.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.8%

3.2%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

3.5%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moana Pasifika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moana Pasifika's performance.

Fijian Drua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fijian Drua might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moana Pasifika than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moana Pasifika that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fijian Drua than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fijian Drua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Moana Pasifika - Fijian Drua Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Moana Pasifika will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tuipulotu T.	1. Ravai P.
2. Sanerivi M.	2. Dolokoto M.
3. Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F.	3. Tawake S.
4. Savage T.	4. Nasilasila I.
5. Slade S.	5. Rotuisolia R. L.
6. Faiilagi M.	6. Waqa E.
7. Savea A.	7. Murray M.
8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.	8. Salawa K.
9. Taumateine J.	9. Kuruvoli S.
10. Garden-Bachop J.	10. Armstrong-Ravula I.
11. Inisi F.	11. Loganimasi P.
12. Toala D.	12. Rabitu I.
13. Lalomilo L.	13. Tabuavou I.
14. Ofa T.	14. Rakuro T.
15. Havili W.	15. Karawalevu V.
Substitutes
16. Maka T.	16. Ikanivere T.
17. Moli L.	17. Tuni M.
18. Apoua C.	18. Doge M.
19. Craig A.	19. Vocevoce M.
20. Havili Talitui S.	20. Canakaivata E.
21. Matavao M.	21. Nawai L.
22. Pellegrini P.	22. Valetini K.
23. Savea J.	23. Ravutaumada S.
Coaches
. Umaga T.	. Jackson G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 0)
17', Murray M. ↓, Canakaivata E. ↑,
25', Toala D. (Try),
26', Garden-Bachop J. (Missed Conversion),
30', Faiilagi M. (Try),
31', Garden-Bachop J. (Missed Conversion),
34', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Penalty),
37', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Try),
37', Garden-Bachop J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 15)
41', Dolokoto M. ↓, Ikanivere T. ↑,
41', Tawake S. ↓, Doge M. ↑,
45', Faiilagi M. (Try),
46', Garden-Bachop J. (Missed Conversion),
48', Ikanivere T. (Try),
49', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
50', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. ↓, Apoua C. ↑,
51', Ravai P. ↓, Tuni M. ↑,
51', Rotuisolia R. L. ↓, Vocevoce M. ↑,
53', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Penalty Goal),
53', Slade S. ↓, Craig A. ↑,
53', Tuipulotu T. ↓, Moli L. ↑,
54', Inisi F. ↓, Savea J. ↑,
56', Savea J. (Try),
56', Garden-Bachop J. ↓, Pellegrini P. ↑,
57', Havili W. (Missed Conversion),
57', Rakuro T. (Try),
58', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Conversion),
58', Kuruvoli S. ↓, Nawai L. ↑,
58', Karawalevu V. ↓, Ravutaumada S. ↑,
62', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. ↓, Havili Talitui S. ↑,
62', Taumateine J. ↓, Matavao M. ↑,
66', Sanerivi M. ↓, Maka T. ↑,
79', Ofa T. (Try),
80', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 and 11).

Recent matches Moana Pasifika is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fijian Drua is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Moana Pasifika is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Moana Pasifika to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moana Pasifika won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 155:177 (average 31:35.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Moana Pasifika won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 73:72 (average 36.5:36).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moana Pasifika
Super Rugby
19.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Brumbies	0:24 ✺
12.04.25	Blues - Moana Pasifika	36:17 ✺
04.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	45:28 ✺
29.03.25	Crusaders - Moana Pasifika	29:45 ✺
21.03.25	Moana Pasifika - Chiefs	35:50 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 LLWWL
- Fijian Drua
Super Rugby
18.04.25	Fijian Drua - Waratahs	28:14 ✺
12.04.25	Highlanders - Fijian Drua	43:20 ✺
04.04.25	Fijian Drua - Crusaders	14:31 ✺
23.03.25	Western Force - Fijian Drua	52:15 ✺
14.03.25	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	38:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
26.04.24	Fijian Drua - Moana Pasifika	24:17
02.03.24	Moana Pasifika - Fijian Drua	39:36
26.05.23	Fijian Drua - Moana Pasifika	47:46
24.02.23	Moana Pasifika - Fijian Drua	34:36
14.05.22	Fijian Drua - Moana Pasifika	34:19

Moana Pasifika - Fijian Drua: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide