Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: GGL Stadium (Montpellier)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Montpellier		Gloucester

	1	X	2
	1.5	21	2.75
	1.44	21	2.85
	1.51	24	2.75
	1.58	25	2.45
	1.57	23	2.4
	1.51	20	2.76
	1.51	24	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.5)	22.57 ↓ (28)	2.67 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
61.2%

Draw
4.1%

Gloucester
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

3.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

3.4%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The chances for Gloucester have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montpellier - Gloucester Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -5.5, OT - Montpellier (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 - Montpellier (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Montpellier will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Montpellier will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Forletta E.	1. Knight C.
2. Tolofua C.	2. Singleton J.
3. Haouas M.	3. Gotovtsev K.
4. Verhaeghe F.	4. Jordan C.
5. Ngakuru M.	5. Thomas F.
6. Nouchi L.	6. Clement J.
7. Simmonds S.	7. Ludlow L. (C)
8. Vunipola V. (C)	8. Ackermann R.
9. Coly L.	9. Englefield C.
10. Reus H.	10. Atkinson C.
11. Bridge G.	11. Morris J.
12. Vincent A.	12. Atkinson S.
13. Darmon T.	13. Harris C.
14. Lucas P.	14. Wade C.
15. Bouthier A.	15. Carreras S.
Substitutes
16. Akrab L.	16. Blake S.
17. Abuladze N.	17. Ford-Robinson J.
18. Hounkpatin W.	18. Fasogbon A.
19. Martins N.	19. Clarke F.
20. Becognee A.	20. Taylor H.
21. Doan M.	21. Gwynne D.
22. Cadot A.	22. Chapman C.
23. Vincent T.	23. Butler W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 14)
5', Bouthier A. (Try),
6', Reus H. (Conversion Goal),
10', Reus H. (Try),
11', Reus H. (Conversion Goal),
26', Thomas F. (Try),
27', Carreras S. (Conversion Goal),
34', Jordan C. (Try),
35', Carreras S. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Reus H. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 10)
51', Englefield C. 🟨,
57', Ackermann R. (Try),
57', Carreras S. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Carreras S. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Montpellier will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Montpellier to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 36:56 (average 18:28).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 30:27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
29.03.25	Montpellier - Stade Français	38:32 ✺
22.03.25	Section Paloise - Montpellier	40:38 ✺
01.03.25	Montpellier - Castres	21:17 ✺
22.02.25	Vannes - Montpellier	37:24 ✺
15.02.25	Montpellier - Toulon	30:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL
- Gloucester Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
29.03.25	Gloucester - Bristol Rugby	53:28 ✺
23.03.25	Bath - Gloucester	42:26 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
28.02.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Gloucester	22:17 ✺
15.02.25	Exeter Chiefs - Gloucester	14:22 ✺
07.02.25	Gloucester - Hartpury University	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
11.01.20	Gloucester - Montpellier	29:6
24.11.19	Montpellier - Gloucester	30:27

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