Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Thomond Park (Limerick)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV7
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
World	FloSports app


	Munster		Saracens

	1	X	2
	1.67	19	2.3
	1.8	21	2
	1.71	19	2.25
	1.78	21.4	2.17
	1.62	23	2.38
	1.69	15	2.38
	1.71	19	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.82)	19.63 ↑ (19.44)	2.25 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Munster
54.1%

Draw
4.7%

Saracens
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

4.8%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

4.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Munster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Saracens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Munster than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Munster - Saracens Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Munster will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Saracens will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bleuler D.	1. Brantingham P.
2. Scannell N.	2. George J.
3. Jager O.	3. Riccioni M.
4. Wycherley F.	4. Itoje M. (C)
5. Beirne T. (C)	5. Wilson H.
6. O'Donoghue J.	6. Gonzalez J.
7. Kendellen A.	7. Earl B.
8. Coombes G.	8. Willis T.
9. Murray C.	9. van Zyl I.
10. Crowley J.	10. Burke F.
11. Daly S.	11. Cinti L.
12. Scannell R.	12. Tompkins N.
13. Farrell T.	13. Lozowski A.
14. Nash C.	14. Williams L.
15. Haley M.	15. Daly E.
Substitutes
16. Barron D.	16. Dan T.
17. Ryan J.	17. Mawi E.
18. Archer S.	18. Clarey A.
19. Ahern T.	19. Eke M.
20. Hodnett J.	20. Michelow N.
21. Patterson P.	21. Simpson G.
22. Burns B.	22. Hartley O.
23. Gleeson B.	23. Elliott T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 6)
2', Lozowski A. (Penalty Goal),
11', Lozowski A. (Penalty Goal),
26', Crowley J. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 6)
45', Daly E. (Penalty Goal),
59', Bleuler D. (Try),
60', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
65', Hodnett J. (Try),
66', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
69', Lozowski A. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Munster won 1.

Recent matches Munster is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Saracens is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Munster could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Munster to win the game is with odds 1.79.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Munster won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 94:140 (average 11.8:17.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Munster won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 49:41 (average 12.3:10.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Munster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
27.12.24	Munster - Leinster	7:28 ✺
20.12.24	Ulster - Munster	19:22 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.24	Castres - Munster	16:14 ✺
07.12.24	Munster - Stade Français	33:7 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.11.24	Munster - Lions	17:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLWW
- Saracens FC
English Premiership Rugby
04.01.25	Saracens - Bristol Rugby	35:26 ✺
28.12.24	Bath - Saracens	68:10 ✺
22.12.24	Saracens - Northampton Saints	39:24 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
15.12.24	Stade Français - Saracens	17:28 ✺
07.12.24	Saracens - Blue Bulls	27:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.19	Saracens - Munster	15:6
07.12.19	Munster - Saracens	10:3
20.04.19	Saracens - Munster	32:16
22.04.17	Munster - Saracens	10:26
17.01.15	Saracens - Munster	33:10
24.10.14	Munster - Saracens	14:3
Heineken Cup
16.12.12	Saracens - Munster	19:13

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