Match Info
United Rugby Championship - Round 11Date: 31 January 2026, SaturdayLocation: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC |
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Ospreys |
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Newport Gwent Dragons |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.44 |
23 |
2.88 |
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1.4 |
23 |
3 |
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1.4 |
20.8 |
3.2 |
 Watch |
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1.5 |
21 |
2.75 |
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1.43 |
21 |
2.98 |
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1.42 |
21 |
3 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.43 ↓
(1.47) |
21.63 ↓
(22.2) |
2.97 ↑
(2.86) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 49.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)
- The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Ospreys
64.6% | Draw
4.3% | Newport Gwent Dragons
31.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Newport Gwent Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (+3.3%)Predictions
Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 28:22 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (7 - 7)
- 2nd Half (12 - 6)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 2.Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.Dragons may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Ospreys is a strong favorite.We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 541:408. (average 27.1:20.4).Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 302:188. (average 33.6:20.9).
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Standings
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
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| 11 | Ospreys | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 293:325 | 30 |
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| 15 | Dragons | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 274:357 | 21 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| United Rugby Championship | | | 25.10.25 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys | 19:19 | | 26.04.25 | Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons | 57:24 | | 21.09.24 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys | 23:21 | | 18.05.24 | Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons | 26:13 | | 18.11.23 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys | 20:5 | | 25.03.23 | Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons | 37:18 | | 23.10.22 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys | 32:25 |
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Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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