Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 1

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday


	Poverty Bay		Wairarapa Bush

	1	X	2
	1.65	24	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.63)	24 (24)	2.28 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poverty Bay
55.8%

Draw
3.8%

Wairarapa Bush
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

3.8%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poverty Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Wairarapa Bush has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

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Preview

Poverty Bay could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Poverty Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 136:158. (average 27.2:31.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Poverty Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 81:93. (average 27:31).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Wairarapa	8	5	0	3	277:250	25
9	Poverty Bay	8	2	0	6	268:320	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poverty Bay Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
10.10.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	48:46 ✺
03.10.25	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	29:24 ✺
26.09.25	Poverty Bay - Mid Canterbury	43:47 ✺
19.09.25	Poverty Bay - South Canterbury	41:35 ✺
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 LLLWL
- Wairarapa Bush Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
10.10.25	Mid Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	21:19 ✺
03.10.25	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	29:24 ✺
26.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	22:21 ✺
19.09.25	Wairarapa Bush - Buller	73:27 ✺
13.09.25	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	24:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
03.10.25	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	29:24
06.09.24	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	24:39
13.09.19	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	36:31
24.08.18	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	27:22
07.10.16	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	30:32

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