Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Wairarapa Bush		Poverty Bay

	1	X	2
	1.68	23	2.2
	1.73	23	2.16
	1.68	23	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.69)	23 ↑ (22)	2.19 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wairarapa Bush
54.1%

Draw
4%

Poverty Bay
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

4.2%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

3.9%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wairarapa Bush has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Poverty Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wairarapa Bush than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poverty Bay than the current prediction. (-3%)

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Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Wairarapa Bush will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Wairarapa Bush won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 129:112. (average 32.3:28).

Including home match between the teams, Wairarapa Bush won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 36:31.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wairarapa Bush Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
26.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	22:21 ✺
19.09.25	Wairarapa Bush - Buller	73:27 ✺
13.09.25	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	24:25 ✺
05.09.25	West Coast - Wairarapa Bush	14:24 ✺
29.08.25	Wairarapa Bush - Mid Canterbury	33:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWWL
- Poverty Bay Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
26.09.25	Poverty Bay - Mid Canterbury	43:47 ✺
19.09.25	Poverty Bay - South Canterbury	41:35 ✺
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
05.09.25	Poverty Bay - Buller	38:3 ✺
29.08.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Poverty Bay	19:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 40 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
06.09.24	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	24:39
13.09.19	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	36:31
24.08.18	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	27:22
07.10.16	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	30:32

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