Match Info
Super Rugby - Round 15Date: 23 May 2026, SaturdayLocation: North Harbour Stadium (Auckland)Referee: Keane R. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Argentina | Disney+ |
Brazil | Disney+ |
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Moana Pasifika |
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Reds |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
7 |
34 |
1.1 |
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 |
5.8 |
35 |
1.13 |
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 |
6.08 |
29.2 |
1.14 |
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 |
5.5 |
34 |
1.13 |
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6.94 |
34 |
1.1 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
6.26 ↑ (6.13) |
33.24 ↑ (24.5) |
1.12 ↓ (1.13) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 64.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-18)
- The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Moana Pasifika 14.7% | Draw 2.8% | Reds 82.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moana Pasifika has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Reds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Moana Pasifika - Reds Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:41 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Hala M.
| 1. Blake G.
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2. Sanerivi M.
| 2. Nasser J.
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3. Moli A.
| 3. De Lutiis M.
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4. Craig A.
| 4. Canham J.
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5. Poloniati V.
| 5. Salakaia-Loto L.
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6. Faiilagi M.
| 6. Brial J.
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7. Paea S.
| 7. Mcreight F.
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8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.
| 8. Wilson H.
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9. Pulu A.
| 9. McDermott T.
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10. Pellegrini P.
| 10. Gordon C.
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11. Vaihu G.
| 11. Ryan T.
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12. Latu T.
| 12. Daugunu F.
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13. Alaimalo S.
| 13. Flook J.
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14. Leota I.
| 14. Pritchard T.
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15. Havili W.
| 15. Campbell J.
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| Substitutes |
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16. Harada M.
| 16. Faessler M.
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17. Pole A.
| 17. Toomaga-Allen J.
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18. Latu P.
| 18. Nonggorr Z.
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19. Aho A.
| 19. Uru S.
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20. Ropeti D.
| 20. Latu V.
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21. Nginingini S.
| 21. Thomas K.
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22. Peni F.
| 22. Volavola B.
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23. Tuitama T.
| 23. Anderson L.
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| Coaches |
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. Umaga T.
| . Kiss L.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (7 - 21)
- 2', Pulu A. (Try),
- 3', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 9', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. ↓, Ropeti D. ↑,
- 11', Ryan T. (Try),
- 12', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
- 22', Canham J. (Try),
- 23', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
- 23', Ropeti D. ↓, Tupou Ta'eiloa S. ↑,
- 40+2', Ryan T. (Try),
- 40+3', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (24 - 12)
- 45', Pritchard T. (Try),
- 49', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Try),
- 50', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 51', Nasser J. ↓, Faessler M. ↑,
- 51', De Lutiis M. ↓, Nonggorr Z. ↑,
- 55', (Penalty Try),
- 55', Brial J. 🟨,
- 58', Leota I. (Try),
- 59', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 59', McDermott T. ↓, Thomas K. ↑,
- 59', Blake G. ↓, Toomaga-Allen J. ↑,
- 60', Moli A. ↓, Latu P. ↑,
- 64', Ryan T. ↓, Anderson L. ↑,
- 64', Hala M. ↓, Pole A. ↑,
- 64', Poloniati V. ↓, Aho A. ↑,
- 67', Uru S. ↓, Muller H. ↑,
- 67', Latu T. ↓, Peni F. ↑,
- 67', Pulu A. ↓, Nginingini S. ↑,
- 73', Gordon C. ↓, Volavola B. ↑,
- 74', Sanerivi M. ↓, Harada M. ↑,
- 76', Pellegrini P. (Penalty Goal),
- 77', Brial J. ↓, Latu V. ↑,
- 78', Campbell J. (Try),
- 79', Volavola B. (Conversion Goal),
- 80', Pellegrini P. ↓, Pulini T. ↑,
- 80', Paea S. ↓, Ropeti D. ↑,
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).Moana Pasifika is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).In recent matches, Reds has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Reds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Reds is the obvious favorite.In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Moana Pasifika won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 103:144. (average 25.8:36).Including home matches between the teams, Moana Pasifika won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 45:54. (average 22.5:27).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Super Rugby | | | 21.02.25 | Reds - Moana Pasifika | 56:36 | | 12.04.24 | Moana Pasifika - Reds | 17:14 | | 14.04.23 | Moana Pasifika - Reds | 28:40 | | 20.05.22 | Reds - Moana Pasifika | 34:22 |
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