Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Sweden	DAZN
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1
International	EPCR Rugby TV


	Toulouse		Exeter Chiefs

	1	X	2
	1.01	51	17
	1.03	67	19
	1.01	30	10
	1.02	50	20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1)	49.5 ↑ (48.67)	16.5 ↓ (24.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 71.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-31)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
92.4%

Draw
1.9%

Exeter Chiefs
5.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

94.2%

1.9%

3.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Toulouse - Exeter Chiefs Predictions

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH +28.5 - Exeter Chiefs (2.05) (votes: 80%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 52:21

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Preview

Toulouse has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Performances by Exeter have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The betting markets point to Toulouse as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 146:75 (averaging 36.5:18.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toulouse against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 64:26 goals (averaging 32:13 per game).

Outrights of European Rugby Champions Cup for now

Stade Toulousain: 22% Exeter Chiefs: 1.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
11.10.26	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	45:34 ✺
03.10.26	Castres - Toulouse	7:8 ✺
27.09.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	40:18 ✺
19.09.26	Vannes - Toulouse	23:29 ✺
13.09.26	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	48:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWWW
- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby
11.10.26	Exeter Chiefs - Newcastle Red Bulls	34:28 ✺
02.10.26	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	40:34 ✺
26.09.26	Exeter Chiefs - Gloucester	24:45 ✺
Club Friendly Rugby Union
19.09.26	Cardiff Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	28:33 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
12.09.26	Exeter Chiefs - Bristol Rugby	45:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
15.12.24	Exeter Chiefs - Toulouse	21:64
14.04.24	Toulouse - Exeter Chiefs	64:26
20.12.20	Toulouse - Exeter Chiefs	Stade Toulousain awarded
26.09.20	Exeter Chiefs - Toulouse	28:18

Toulouse - Exeter Chiefs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide