Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Ulster		Stade Français

	1	X	2
	1.05	34	9
	1.04	40	9.8
	1.03	26.14	14.82	Watch
	1.04	34	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↓ (1.05)	33.54 ↑ (31.02)	10.78 ↑ (9.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-21)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
88.7%

Draw
2.8%

Stade Français
8.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

87.7%

9.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Stade Français has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Ulster - Stade Français Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:16

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bell A.	1. Iscaro J.
2. Stewart T.	2. Garcia A.
3. O'Toole T.	3. Melikidze G.
4. Henderson I. (C)	4. Azagoh P.
5. Sheridan H.	5. Botha J.
6. McCann D.	6. Scelzo J. M.
7. Timoney N.	7. Hirigoyen M.
8. Ward B.	8. Tanga Mangene Y.
9. Doak N.	9. Abadie P.
10. Murphy J.	10. Henry Z.
11. Ward Z.	11. Etien L.
12. McCloskey S.	12. Vili T.
13. Hume J.	13. Ward J. C. (C)
14. Baloucoune R.	14. Laloi C.
15. Stockdale J.	15. Ibo M.
Substitutes
16. Herring R.	16. Peyresblanques L.
17. O’Sullivan E.	17. Lux Y.
18. Wilson S.	18. Abramishvili S.
19. Dalton M.	19. Turagacoke S.
20. Reffell S.	20. Halaifonua T.
21. McKee C.	21. Motassi T.
22. Flannery J.	22. Foursans-Bourdette L.
23. Postlethwaite J.	23. Ezeala S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 0)
2', O'Toole T. (Try),
3', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
15', Baloucoune R. (Try),
24', McCloskey S. (Try),
25', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
31', Doak N. (Try),
32', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 19)
47', Melikidze G. (Try),
48', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
55', Laloi C. (Try),
67', Peyresblanques L. (Try),
68', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Ulster has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stade Français is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stade Français may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ulster has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ulster is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.26	Cheetahs - Ulster	0:28 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Connacht - Ulster	24:29 ✺
19.12.25	Leinster - Ulster	24:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	29:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLL
- Stade Français
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Stade Français - Exeter Chiefs	27:25 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Stade Français - Castres	33:15 ✺
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34 ✺
20.12.25	Stade Français - Racing Métro	20:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cheetahs - Stade Français	22:45 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLTW

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