Match Info

WORLD: Super Rugby - Round 1

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: HBF Park (Perth)

Referee: Way J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Western Force		Moana Pasifika

	1	X	2
	1.46	26	2.55
	1.44	25	2.75
	1.47	25.6	2.85	Watch
	1.4	23	3
	1.45	20	2.9
	1.44	25	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.26)	24.1 ↑ (23.75)	2.8 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western Force
63.5%

Draw
3.8%

Moana Pasifika
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.1%

3.9%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western Force has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Western Force's form might have worsened.

Moana Pasifika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Moana Pasifika's recent form is better than expected.

Western Force - Moana Pasifika Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pearce M.	1. Lay J.
2. Dolly N.	2. Sanerivi M.
3. Robertson T.	3. Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F.
4. Williams J.	4. Slade S.
5. Swain D.	5. Craig A.
6. De Crespigny N.	6. Faiilagi M.
7. Tizzano C.	7. Havili Talitui S.
8. Ekuasi V.	8. Savea A.
9. White N.	9. Taumateine J.
10. Donaldson B.	10. Garden-Bachop J.
11. Potter H.	11. Taumoefolau K.
12. Stewart H.	12. Lalomilo L.
13. Tomkinson S.	13. Patafilo P.
14. Palu D.	14. Alaimalo S.
15. Grealy M.	15. Havili W.
Substitutes
16. Horton T.	16. Malolo S.
17. Moli A.	17. Tuipulotu T.
18. Tauakipulu T.	18. Apoua C.
19. Prinsep R.	19. Savage T.
20. Harris W.	20. Tauelangi O.
21. Fines-Leleiwasa I.	21. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.
22. Burey M.	22. Matavao M.
23. Pietsch D.	23. Toala D.
Coaches
. Cron S.	. Umaga T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 27)
12', Taumoefolau K. (Try),
13', Havili W. (Conversion Goal),
16', Garden-Bachop J. (Try),
17', Havili W. (Conversion Goal),
19', Donaldson B. (Penalty Goal),
21', Garden-Bachop J. (Drop Goal),
22', Tizzano C. (Try),
23', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
26', Grealy M. (Try),
27', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
29', Patafilo P. (Try),
30', Havili W. (Conversion Goal),
36', Tizzano C. (Try),
37', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
40', Havili W. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 17)
48', Palu D. ↓, Pietsch D. ↑,
49', Pearce M. (Try),
50', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
52', Lalomilo L. ↓, Toala D. ↑,
52', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. ↓, Apoua C. ↑,
52', Lay J. ↓, Tuipulotu T. ↑,
52', Sanerivi M. ↓, Malolo S. ↑,
54', Dolly N. ↓, Horton T. ↑,
54', Robertson T. ↓, Tauakipulu T. ↑,
57', Slade S. ↓, Savage T. ↑,
57', Havili Talitui S. ↓, Tupou Ta'eiloa S. ↑,
58', Ekuasi V. ↓, Harris W. ↑,
61', Taumoefolau K. (Try),
62', Havili W. (Missed Conversion),
62', Pearce M. ↓, Moli A. ↑,
62', Alaimalo S. ↓, Tauelangi O. ↑,
65', Faiilagi M. ↓, Matavao M. ↑,
69', Tauakipulu T. ↓, Robertson T. ↑,
69', Swain D. ↓, Prinsep R. ↑,
70', Robertson T. 🟨,
70', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Try),
70', Grealy M. ↓, Pearce M. ↑,
71', Havili W. (Conversion Goal),
72', Taumateine J. (Try),
73', Havili W. (Missed Conversion),
76', White N. (Try),
77', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
80+4', Donaldson B. (Try),
80+5', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In this match Western Force is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Western Force won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 83:68 (average 27.7:22.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Western Force won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 35:40 (average 17.5:20).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western Force Rugby
Super Rugby
01.06.24	Western Force - Brumbies	19:24 ✺
25.05.24	Reds - Western Force	59:13 ✺
18.05.24	Western Force - Waratahs	27:7 ✺
11.05.24	Western Force - Fijian Drua	48:10 ✺
04.05.24	Chiefs - Western Force	56:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWWL
- Moana Pasifika
Super Rugby
31.05.24	Crusaders - Moana Pasifika	43:10 ✺
25.05.24	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	27:12 ✺
17.05.24	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	32:24 ✺
10.05.24	Moana Pasifika - Chiefs	7:43 ✺
03.05.24	Moana Pasifika - Highlanders	17:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
15.03.24	Western Force - Moana Pasifika	14:22
11.03.23	Western Force - Moana Pasifika	21:18
24.05.22	Moana Pasifika - Western Force	28:48

Western Force - Moana Pasifika: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide