Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Río Parapití (Pedro Juan Caballero)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	2 de Mayo		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3.55	3.05	2.12	Watch
	3.71	3.1	2.25
	3.92	3.01	2.07	Watch
				Watch
	3.57	3.26	2.26	Watch
	4	3.1	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.69 ↑ (2.73)	3.1 ↓ (3.25)	2.16 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

2 de Mayo
25.6%

Draw
30.5%

Alianza Lima
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

28.2%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

2 de Mayo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that 2 de Mayo's form might have worsened.

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	36.4%	63.6%

2 de Mayo - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Lima: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Alianza Lima (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alianza Lima will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Lima (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez A. (G) 15. Davalos Valdez V. 21. Sosa P. (C) 5. Saiz C. 19. Castro C. 24. Romero O. 32. Diaz H. 10. Gomez A. 7. Alfonso E. 9. Ruiz Diaz R. 17. Delvalle P.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 14. Montenegro D. 6. Garces R. (C) 3. Antoni M. 31. Carbajal C. 4. Chavez G. 7. Gaibor F. 5. Pavez E. 25. Gentile G. 99. Girotti F. 21. Cari P.
Substitutes
27. Acosta D. 13. Ayala W. 2. Barreto M. 23. Caceres Aguero F. M. 8. Colman O. 11. Coronel U. 16. Espinola A. 26. Fretes S. 3. Ibarrola W. 4. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 20. Sanabria S. 12. Servin C. (G)	55. Aquino P. 18. Burlamaqui A. 11. Cantero A. 8. Castillo E. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 1. Duarte A. (G) 32. Garcia J. 13. Huaman M. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K. 20. Velez J.
Coaches
Ledesma E.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Chavez G. 🟨,
31', Gomez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Gomez A. ↓, Coronel U. ↑,
59', Gentile G. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
59', Cari P. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
59', Gaibor F. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
63', Diaz H. ↓, Sanabria S. ↑,
63', Ruiz Diaz R. ↓, Acosta D. ↑,
70', Carbajal C. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
78', Girotti F. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
78', Pavez E. ↓, Burlamaqui A. ↑,
82', Romero O. ↓, Colman O. ↑,
83', Delvalle P. ↓, Fretes S. ↑,
85', 1 - 0, Acosta D. ⚽, Fretes S. (A),
86', Alfonso E. ↓, Ayala W. ↑,
90', Garcia J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Alianza Lima has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

2 de Mayo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Alianza Lima has had a series of away games.

Alianza Lima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

2 de Mayo - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 33.55%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS 2 de Mayo
Paraguayan Primera Division
31.01.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	5:1 ✺
28.01.26	2 de Mayo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Luqueño	1:2 ✺
26.11.25	Olimpia Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:3 ✺
21.11.25	2 de Mayo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTLTL
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
30.01.26	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
24.01.26	Alianza Lima - Inter Miami	3:0 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
18.01.26	Colo-Colo - Alianza Lima	2:3 ✺
14.01.26	Unión Santa Fe - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Independiente - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLL

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