Match Info

Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Independiente		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.15
	2.49	2.98	2.96	Watch
	2.14	3.05	3.27
	2.45	2.42	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.18)	2.91 ↓ (3.2)	3.35 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
40.3%

Draw
31.9%

Alianza Lima
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

28.1%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Independiente - Alianza Lima Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Blazquez J. (G) 38. Barros L. 13. Fedorco J. 36. Valdez S. 3. Valenzuela M. 23. Marcone I. (C) 16. Perez M. 17. Mazzantti W. 14. Millan L. 24. Palais J. 25. Pussetto I.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 6. Garces R. 5. Zambrano C. 13. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 55. Aquino P. 20. Velez J. 10. Pena S. 8. Castillo E. 99. Girotti F. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)
Substitutes
19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G. 10. Cabral L. 29. Godoy L. 26. Lomonaco K. 5. Loyola F. 7. Montiel S. 33. Rey R. (G) 20. Rodrigo Fernandez 22. Zabala F.	3. Antoni M. 18. Burlamaqui A. 11. Cantero A. 31. Carbajal C. 21. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 4. Chavez G. 1. Duarte A. (G) 77. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 30. Motta G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Gaibor F. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
23', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
45+1', Pussetto I. 🟨,
45+2', Zambrano C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Palais J. ↓, Cabral L. ↑,
46', Valdez S. ↓, Lomonaco K. ↑,
46', Barros L. ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
46', Valenzuela M. ↓, Zabala F. ↑,
46', Marcone I. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
46', Mazzantti W. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
46', Pussetto I. ↓, Cabral L. ↑,
46', Palais J. ↓, Abaldo M. ↑,
46', Viscarra G. ↓, Duarte A. ↑,
46', Velez J. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,
46', Zambrano C. ↓, Chavez G. ↑,
46', Garces R. ↓, Antoni M. ↑,
46', Trauco M. ↓, Carbajal C. ↑,
46', Cari P. ↓, Aquino P. ↑,
46', Pena S. ↓, Motta G. ↑,
46', Castillo E. ↓, Burlamaqui A. ↑,
46', Girotti F. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
46', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Cantero A. ⚽,
60', Estrada J. 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Abaldo M. ⚽,
63', Perez M. ↓, Loyola F. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Montiel S. ⚽,
80', Castillo J. 🟨,
80', Montiel S. 🟨,
86', Fedorco J. ↓, Bordon G. ↑,
90', Loyola F. 🟨,

Preview

Independiente might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Independiente won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.11.25	Independiente - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
10.11.25	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Independiente - Atlético Tucumán	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Independiente - Platense	3:0 ✺
19.10.25	San Martín de San Juan - Independiente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWL
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
06.12.25	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	3:4 penalties ✺
02.12.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Alianza Lima - Cajamarca	3:0 ✺
05.11.25	Los Chankas - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
31.05.17	Alianza Lima - Independiente	0:1
04.04.17	Independiente - Alianza Lima	0:0

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