Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer (Guayaquil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	9 de Octubre		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.17	3	2.37
	3.34	2.77	2.41	Watch
	3.19	3.09	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.85)	2.95 ↑ (2.78)	2.37 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

9 de Octubre
28.9%

Draw
31.6%

Guayaquil City
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

33.1%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

32.6%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

9 de Octubre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

9 de Octubre - Guayaquil City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. 9 de Octubre (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
79', 0 - 1, ⚽,
82', 0 - 2, ⚽,
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

9 de Octubre may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guayaquil City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, 9 de Octubre won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Guayaquil City - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.52%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Copa
18.09.25	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	2:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
09.09.25	Independiente Juniors - 9 de Octubre	2:1 ✺
02.09.25	San Antonio - 9 de Octubre	2:2 ✺
26.08.25	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
20.08.25	9 de Octubre - Técnico Universitario	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLTWW
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
11.09.25	Guayaquil City - San Antonio	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Gualaceo - Guayaquil City	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Guayaquil City - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Gualaceo - Guayaquil City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
19.06.25	9 de Octubre - Guayaquil City	0:1
10.04.25	Guayaquil City - 9 de Octubre	0:1
24.10.24	9 de Octubre - Guayaquil City	0:2
04.09.24	Guayaquil City - 9 de Octubre	1:0
21.05.24	Guayaquil City - 9 de Octubre	1:1
27.03.24	9 de Octubre - Guayaquil City	0:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.09.22	Guayaquil City - 9 de Octubre	1:1

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