Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 17

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	ABC		Guarani

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	2.95	3.9
	2.28	2.88	3.1
	2.42	3.05	3.13
	2.33	3.02	3.18	Watch
	1.95	2.75	4
	2.29	2.91	3.15	Watch
	2.01	3.15	3.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.01)	2.96 ↓ (3.18)	3.43 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
42.3%

Draw
31%

Guarani
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

28.5%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

28%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

ABC - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. ABC will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. ABC (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Pedro Paulo (G) 8. Adeilson Maranhao 20. Alisson Taddei 4. Bruno Bispo (C) 17. Bruno Leite 6. Lucas Sampaio 2. Patric 14. Rafael Oller 23. Richardson 3. Rodolfo Filemon 19. Ronaldy	25. Andrey Ventura (G) 4. Alan Santos (C) 9. Bruno Santos 10. Diego Torres 6. Emerson 8. Isaque 7. Kaua Jesus 5. Kelvi Gomes 2. Lucas Justen 11. Mirandinha 3. Raphael
Substitutes
10. Anderson Rosa 7. Carlos Eduardo 1. Felipe Garcia (G) 21. Ian 18. Jenison 9. Joaozinho 25. Juninho 16. Manoel 26. Matheus Rocha 5. Randerson 13. Renato Vischi 15. Windson	18. Caio Mello 21. Dentinho 12. Emerson Junior (G) 20. Gabriel Silva 15. Giva 22. Kadi Silva 13. Lucao 19. Luiz Miguel 14. Marcio Silva 16. Renan Castro 17. Takahashi R.
Coaches
Rodrigo Santana	Matheus Costa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Kaua Jesus ⚽,
7', 1 - 1, Bruno Leite ⚽,
14', Raphael 🟨,
32', Lucas Justen 🟨,
37', 2 - 1, Kelvi Gomes (Own goal),
39', Patric 🟨,
45', 2 - 2, Mirandinha ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Isaque ↓, Caio Mello ↑,
46', Patric ↓, Matheus Rocha ↑,
50', Ronaldy 🟨,
58', Mirandinha 🟨,
58', 3 - 2, Alisson Taddei ⚽,
59', 🟨,
59', Kaua Jesus ↓, Dentinho ↑,
62', 3 - 3, Raphael ⚽,
67', Mirandinha ↓, Kadi Silva ↑,
67', Caio Mello ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
67', Rodolfo Filemon ↓, Jenison ↑,
67', Rafael Oller ↓, Anderson Rosa ↑,
73', 3 - 4, Diego Torres ⚽,
83', Emerson 🟨,
84', Adeilson Maranhao ↓, Joaozinho ↑,
84', Diego Torres ↓, Marcio Silva ↑,
88', Dentinho 🟨,
89', Bruno Leite 🟨,
90', Bruno Leite ↓, Randerson ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 11).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

ABC is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, ABC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, ABC won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

ABC - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.19%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie C
09.08.25	Caxias - ABC	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	ABC - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Floresta - ABC	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	ABC - Maringá	3:3 ✺
12.07.25	Tombense - ABC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTTTW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
09.08.25	Guarani - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
21.07.25	Anápolis - Guarani	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Guarani - Ituano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.11.23	Guarani - ABC	2:3
19.07.23	ABC - Guarani	0:1

ABC - Guarani: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide