Match Info

Super League - Championship Group - Round 4

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Allwyn Arena (Athens)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ANT1 Pacific
Belarus	Sport TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 7
Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Usa	ANT1 Satellite


	AEK Athens		Panathinaikos

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.6	3.75	5.75
	1.45	4.5	6.8	Watch
	1.43	4.64	8.06
	1.44	4.51	6.76	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.46	4.36	6.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.5)	4.3 ↑ (3.7)	6.7 ↓ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Athens
64.2%

Draw
21.8%

Panathinaikos
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

25.1%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

24.2%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Panathinaikos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

AEK Athens - Panathinaikos Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AEK Athens will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 11. Koita A. 13. Pineda O. 18. Marin R. 37. Pereyra R. 25. Varga B. 9. Jovic L.	40. Lafont A. (G) 2. Calabria D. 14. Palmer-Brown E. 5. Touba A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 23. Pantelidis P. 18. Kontouris S. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. (C) 10. Andino S. 7. Tetteh A. 20. Taborda V.
Substitutes
81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 15. Georgiev M. 4. Grujic M. 10. Joao Mario 7. Kutesa D. 23. Ljubicic R. 20. Mantalos P. 29. Penrice J. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini	12. Chaves L. (G) 4. Chirivella P. 31. Djuricic F. 88. Jagusic A. 70. Kotsaris K. (G) 27. Kotsiras G. 72. Pantovic M. 6. Siopis M. 19. Swiderski K. 52. Vilhena T. 9. Zaroury A.
Coaches
Nikolic M.	Benitez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Moukoudi H. 🟨,
34', Relvas F. 🟨,
42', Calabria D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', Tetteh A. 🟨,
62', 0 - 1, Tetteh A. ⚽,
64', Strakosha T. 🟨,
66', Pereyra R. ↓, Zini ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Zini ⚽,
73', Pantelidis P. ↓, Zaroury A. ↑,
74', Kontouris S. ↓, Siopis M. ↑,
79', Andino S. ↓, Jagusic A. ↑,
84', Tetteh A. ↓, Pantovic M. ↑,
84', Taborda V. ↓, Djuricic F. ↑,
85', Pineda O. 🟨,
86', Marin R. ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
86', Koita A. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Joao Mario ⚽,
90+6', Jovic L. ↓, Ljubicic R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AEK won 2.

AEK is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Panathinaikos's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, AEK is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AEK won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:19. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, AEK won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Panathinaikos: 31.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	5	5	0	0	12:2	10	15
2	AEK Athens	6	4	2	0	16:3	13	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
03.05.26	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	AEK Athens - PAOK	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	AEK Athens - Rayo Vallecano	3:1 ✺
09.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens	3:0 ✺
Greek Super League
05.04.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWLW
- Panathinaikos FC
Greek Super League
03.05.26	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Panathinaikos - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	PAOK - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Asteras Tripolis - Panathinaikos	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Betis - Panathinaikos	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
03.05.26	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	0:0
18.01.26	AEK Athens - Panathinaikos	4:0
30.11.25	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	2:3
04.05.25	AEK Athens - Panathinaikos	1:2
06.04.25	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	3:1
19.01.25	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	1:0
29.09.24	AEK Athens - Panathinaikos	2:0

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