Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rayo Vallecano		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.1
	2	3.3	4.15
	1.97	3.39	4.44
	1.92	3.38	4.33	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4
	2	3.38	4.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.04)	3.31 ↓ (3.41)	4.22 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
48.6%

Draw
28.8%

AEK Athens
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.8%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

28.2%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.7%	12.2%	17.1%

Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 29 - 70.7%). AEK will win (votes: 7 - 17.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 56.8% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Rayo Vallecano (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 17. Lopez U. 6. Ciss P. 12. Akhomach I. 7. Palazon I. (C) 18. Garcia A. 19. de Frutos J.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 11. Koita A. 20. Mantalos P. (C) 13. Pineda O. 37. Pereyra R. 25. Varga B. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 8. Gacinovic M. 15. Georgiev M. 17. Kaloskamis D. 7. Kutesa D. 18. Marin R. 29. Penrice J. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini
Coaches
Perez I.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Akhomach I. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
17', Nikolic M. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 0, Lopez U. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mantalos P. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
56', Lopez U. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
56', Akhomach I. ↓, Alemao ↑,
61', Varga B. 🟨,
65', Diaz P. 🟨,
66', Garcia A. ↓, Pacha ↑,
71', Varga B. ↓, Zini ↑,
71', Pereyra R. ↓, Gacinovic M. ↑,
72', Relvas F. 🟨,
74', 3 - 0, Palazon I. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Palazon I. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
80', de Frutos J. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
87', Koita A. ↓, Kutesa D. ↑,
89', Jovic L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Rayo Vallecano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AEK is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rayo Vallecano might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
03.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Elche	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
16.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Levante	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLTW
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
05.04.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	AEK Athens - AE Kifisia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	AEK Athens - Celje	0:2 ✺
Greek Super League
15.03.26	Atromitos Athens - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Celje - AEK Athens	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLTW

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