What is the expert prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens?

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Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 7, Sky Sport Mix
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Play Sports 3, VOOsport World 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	RTL+, Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	ANT 1+, ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256, Sky Sport Calcio
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Claro Sports, Disney+, ESPN
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sky Sport Mix, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Rayo Vallecano		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.1
	2	3.3	4.15
	1.97	3.39	4.44
	1.92	3.38	4.33	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4
	2	3.38	4.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.04)	3.31 ↓ (3.41)	4.22 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
48.6%

Draw
28.8%

AEK Athens
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.8%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

28.2%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.7%	12.2%	17.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 29 - 70.7%). AEK will win (votes: 7 - 17.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 56.8% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Rayo Vallecano (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 17. Lopez U. 6. Ciss P. 12. Akhomach I. 7. Palazon I. (C) 18. Garcia A. 19. de Frutos J.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 11. Koita A. 20. Mantalos P. (C) 13. Pineda O. 37. Pereyra R. 25. Varga B. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 8. Gacinovic M. 15. Georgiev M. 17. Kaloskamis D. 7. Kutesa D. 18. Marin R. 29. Penrice J. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini
Coaches
Perez I.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Akhomach I. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
17', Nikolic M. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 0, Lopez U. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mantalos P. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
56', Lopez U. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
56', Akhomach I. ↓, Alemao ↑,
61', Varga B. 🟨,
65', Diaz P. 🟨,
66', Garcia A. ↓, Pacha ↑,
71', Varga B. ↓, Zini ↑,
71', Pereyra R. ↓, Gacinovic M. ↑,
72', Relvas F. 🟨,
74', 3 - 0, Palazon I. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Palazon I. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
80', de Frutos J. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
87', Koita A. ↓, Kutesa D. ↑,
89', Jovic L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Rayo Vallecano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AEK is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rayo Vallecano might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

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Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Rayo Vallecano: 18.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
03.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Elche	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
16.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Levante	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLTW
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
05.04.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	AEK Athens - AE Kifisia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	AEK Athens - Celje	0:2 ✺
Greek Super League
15.03.26	Atromitos Athens - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Celje - AEK Athens	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLTW

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