Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Allwyn Arena (Athens)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	RIK 1
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
France	Canal+ Live 8
Germany	RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 2, Cosmote Sport 4K
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 9
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	On Golf, ON Plus


	AEK Athens		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.7	3.4
	2.08	3.7	3.35
	2.09	3.72	3.53
	2.04	3.69	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.25
	2.14	3.73	3.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.12)	3.64 ↑ (3.51)	3.37 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Athens
45.7%

Draw
26.1%

Rayo Vallecano
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

27.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

27.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.3%	17.1%	14.6%

AEK Athens - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. AEK will win (votes: 26 - 68.4%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 6 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK: 53.6% – 83.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AEK Athens will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 11. Koita A. 18. Marin R. 13. Pineda O. 7. Kutesa D. 90. Zini 25. Varga B.	13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. (C) 6. Ciss P. 17. Lopez U. 12. Akhomach I. 19. de Frutos J. 18. Garcia A.
Substitutes
81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 8. Gacinovic M. 15. Georgiev M. 17. Kaloskamis D. 29. Penrice J. 37. Pereyra R. 21. Vida D.	9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.
Coaches
Nikolic M.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Zini ⚽, Pilios S. (A),
19', Akhomach I. 🟨,
27', Garcia A. ↓, Pacha ↑,
30', Varga B. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Marin R. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Lopez U. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Akhomach I. ↓, Alemao ↑,
51', 3 - 0, Zini ⚽, Kutesa D. (A),
55', Lopez U. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
55', Luiz Felipe ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
60', 3 - 1, Palazon I. ⚽, Diaz P. (A),
71', Kutesa D. ↓, Eliasson N. ↑,
77', Zini ↓, Gacinovic M. ↑,
80', Palazon I. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
85', Pilios S. ↓, Pereyra R. ↑,
90+1', Koita A. 🟨,
90+6', Diaz P. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Rayo Vallecano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

AEK could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in AEK: Callens A. (Heart Problems) Grujic M. (Inactive) Joao Mario (Inactive) Jonsson J. (Inactive) Jovic L. (Yellow Cards) Ljubicic R. (Inactive) Sahabo H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Martin C. (Inactive) Mendez D. (Knee Injury) Mumin A. (Inactive) Nteka R. (Inactive) Perez F. (Inactive) Vertrouwd J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in AEK: Mantalos P. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, AEK won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Athens
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens	3:0 ✺
Greek Super League
05.04.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	AEK Athens - AE Kifisia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	AEK Athens - Celje	0:2 ✺
Greek Super League
15.03.26	Atromitos Athens - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLT
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.26	Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Elche	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens	3:0

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