Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine


	AVS		Alverca

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.35	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.55
	2.98	3.05	2.42
	3.39	3.24	2.33
	1.73	3.77	4.52	Watch
				Watch
	2.91	3.14	2.47	Watch
	2.9	3.15	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (3.04)	3.22 ↑ (3.18)	2.73 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AVS
34.4%

Draw
30.1%

Alverca
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

30%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

30.9%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

AVS - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. AVS will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Alverca will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Simao (G) 2. Spencer D. 4. Bane S. 19. Galletto T. 12. Rivas D. 6. Assuncao G. 15. Grau J. (C) 11. Akinsola T. 8. Pedro Lima 10. Barbosa R. 7. Tomane	13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 6. Gui D. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 9. Marezi 20. Figueiredo
Substitutes
20. Duarte D. 9. Escobar J. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 24. Kiki 16. Kodisang K. 17. Lourenco B. 23. Mendonca G. 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene	28. Cabezas G. 25. Diarra S. 22. Esteves G. 19. Leite T. 88. Martins D. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 16. Mendes T. 11. Nuozzi C. 91. Sandro Lima
Coaches
Sousa J. P.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Pedro Lima ⚽, Rivas D. (A),
24', Pedro Lima 🟨,
40', Akinsola T. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Amorim ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 1 - 2, Figueiredo ⚽, Lincoln (A),
57', Pedro Lima ↓, Kiki ↑,
57', Rivas D. ↓, Lourenco B. ↑,
60', Bane S. 🟨,
61', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
66', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
71', Assuncao G. ↓, Kodisang K. ↑,
72', Barbosa R. ↓, Mendonca G. ↑,
74', Gui D. ↓, Mendes T. ↑,
75', Figueiredo ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
84', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
88', Lincoln ↓, Esteves G. ↑,
88', Amorim ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 3, Esteves G. ⚽, Sandro Lima (A),
90+6', Esteves G. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 13).

AVS has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in AVS: Kodisang K. (Inactive) Molina G. (Inactive) Paulo Vitor (Red Card) Perea O. (International duty)

There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Red Card) Leo Chu (Inactive)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 31.33%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - AVS	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Estoril Praia - AVS	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Braga - AVS	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLLLT
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Santa Clara - Alverca	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Alverca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Alverca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWLT

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