Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Portugal	Sport TV4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Arouca		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.05	1.86	Watch
	4.25	3.25	1.88	Watch
	4.36	3.38	1.9	Watch
	4.4	3.2	1.85	Watch
	4.69	3.34	1.93	Watch
	4.25	3.33	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↑ (3.91)	3.26 ↓ (3.32)	1.88 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
21.4%

Draw
28.8%

Gil Vicente
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

28.5%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

28.2%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.4%	15.2%	67.4%

Arouca - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 8 - 17.4%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 31 - 67.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 15.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 53.9% – 80.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Arouca (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Gil Vicente (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Arouca (4.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Gil Vicente (votes: 12 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Mantl N. (G) 4. Rocha M. 66. Fayed O. 3. Fontan J. 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 89. Pedro Santos 22. van Ee E. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 17. Barbero I. 7. Djouahra N.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 48. Espigares A. 4. Elimbi M. 20. Hevertton S. 5. Caseres F. 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 7. Toure T. 9. Pablo
Substitutes
21. Fukui T. 10. Gozalbez P. 77. Jansonas R. 24. Mansilla B. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 8. Simao D. 16. Sola A. 1. Valido J. (G)	8. Bamba M. 17. Bermejo 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 28. Pereira D. 80. Rodrigues R. 89. Varela G. 6. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Seabra V.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Lee H. ⚽, Trezza A. (A),
12', 2 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Pablo ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 2 - 2, Murilo de Souza ⚽,
57', Fayed O. 🟨,
64', Fayed O. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
64', Lee H. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
75', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
75', Pablo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
75', Garcia S. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
77', Pedro Santos 🟨,
78', Barbero I. ↓, Puche ↑,
80', Caseres F. 🟨,
83', Pedro Santos ↓, Fukui T. ↑,
83', Djouahra N. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
86', van Ee E. 🟨,
86', Esteves L. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
90', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
90+1', Caseres F. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
90+7', Bamba M. 🟨,
90+7', Popovic B. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.

Arouca is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Gil Vicente has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gil Vicente is the team to beat.

There will not play in Arouca: Dante A. (International duty) Flores M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Buatu J. (International duty) Konan G. (International duty) Mutombo J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Arouca: Popovic B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Moreira A. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:10. (average 1.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 1.7:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
21.12.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
01.12.25	Arouca - Braga	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Fafe - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWLLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	AVS - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.05.25	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:1
27.12.24	Arouca - Gil Vicente	1:1
26.04.24	Gil Vicente - Arouca	2:2
16.12.23	Arouca - Gil Vicente	3:0
05.02.23	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:1
Taça de Portugal
08.11.22	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:4
Liga Portugal
15.08.22	Arouca - Gil Vicente	1:0

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