Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Minakovic N. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	AZ Alkmaar		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6.5
	1.46	4.33	5.75
	1.47	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.5	4.33	5.5
	1.51	4.59	6.28
	1.49	4.5	5.95
	1.51	4.6	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.67)	4.45 ↑ (3.98)	6.1 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
63.3%

Draw
21.2%

Legia Warsaw
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

23.7%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

25.1%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AZ Alkmaar's performance.

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	3.8%	11.5%

AZ Alkmaar - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.75% – 98.49%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ryan M. (G) 2. Sugawara Y. 33. Goes W. 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. 16. Mijnans S. 10. de Wit D. 8. Clasie J. (C) 23. Lahdo M. 9. Pavlidis V. 19. van Brederode M.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 12. Pankov R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 5. Ribeiro Y. 13. Wszolek P. 99. Slisz B. 22. Elitim J. 33. Kun P. 27. Josue (C) 7. Pekhart T. 28. Gual M.
Substitutes
6. Dantas T. 22. Dekker M. 28. Goudmijn K. 30. Kasius D. 4. Martins Indi B. 14. Mihailovic D. 7. Odgaard J. 20. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 21. Poku E. 11. Sadiq I. 15. van Bommel R. 12. Verhulst H. (G)	8. Augustyniak R. 32. Baku M. 4. Burch M. 21. Celhaka J. 17. Gil Dias 30. Hladun D. (G) 3. Kapuadi S. 23. Kobylak G. (G) 9. Kramer B. 20. Muci E. 39. Rosolek M. 18. Sokolowski P.
Coaches
Jansen P.	Runjaic K.

Preview

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

AZ could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match AZ is a favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Augustyniak R. (Muscle Injury) Kapustka B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Meerdink M. (Shoulder Injury) Westerveld S. (Knee Injury) de Wit M. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Legia: Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
01.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard	4:0 ✺
28.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	1:1 ✺
24.09.23	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.09.23	Zrinjski Mostar - AZ Alkmaar	4:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTWLW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.10.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	3:4 ✺
24.09.23	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.09.23	Legia Warsaw - Aston Villa	3:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.09.23	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWWWT

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